As France prepares for a dark day of strikes and protests on Thursday, September 18th, the new prime minister, Sébastien Lecornu, is holding a series of consultations with the various political forces in an attempt to form a government that would not be instantly rejected once in office.
Although Emmanuel Macron was quick to appoint a successor to François Bayrou the day after the confidence vote failed on Monday, September 8th, the composition of the new government is likely to take a long time and will in all likelihood not be known before the beginning of October—and in any case not before Macron’s planned trip to the United States for the United Nations General Assembly, September 22–25.
The Socialists intend to take advantage of Bayrou’s downfall to return to the forefront of French politics by promoting a supposed ‘renewal’ of the party—and distancing themselves from their cumbersome allies from La France Insoumise (LFI).
A poll commissioned by the Socialist Party (PS) claims that more than 80% of French people would support the ‘social justice’ measures proposed by the Socialists for the next budget, well beyond its usual electoral base. The ‘Zucman tax,’—a proposed 2% minimum tax on France’s wealthiest 1,800 households with assets of more than €100 million—is among the most popular measures. However, by including business assets in its scope, the measure risks accelerating the tax exile of French entrepreneurs. The Socialists believe they are in a strong position to impose their plan, as Lecornu will need their votes to avoid a no-confidence vote. However, they said they were disappointed with their meeting with the prime minister on Wednesday due to the vague nature of the head of government’s comments. No socialist ministers are expected to join the new government team. After their meeting with the prime minister, the first secretary of the Socialist Party, Olivier Faure, was very clear. “We told him that if he was going to do the same thing as François Bayrou, the same causes would produce the same effects, and we would bring a vote of no confidence against him as soon as he made his general policy speech,” he threatened.
Caution, not to say scepticism, is also the order of the day on the part of the Rassemblement National, who met with Lecornu at the end of the afternoon. Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen welcomed the prime minister’s desire for “change” but remain doubtful about its effectiveness. “We have been extremely firm about the expectations of the French people,” insisted Jordan Bardella. “If he continues with the policy that has been pursued so far, he will fall.” Marine Le Pen reminded the press that the dissolution of the National Assembly remains the only viable solution to the crisis.
Negotiations for the next budget are at the heart of the discussions. The previous prime minister, François Bayrou, was aiming for €44 billion in savings for the 2026 budget. Given his failure to win over MPs, the amount of savings will inevitably have to be revised downwards. The PS, for its part, is proposing half that amount—around €22 billion—in savings. The president of the National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, is seeking a compromise and proposing an agreement of “€35 to 36 billion,” an amount that suits the Les Républicains (LR) party in order to meet European commitments. The amount is one thing; the agreement on the savings to be made is another. For the moment, this agreement does not exist—the only consensus being that of discontent.
Between 800,000 and 900,000 demonstrators are expected on Thursday, September 18th. More than 80,000 police officers have been mobilised across the country, accompanied by drones, armoured vehicles, and water cannons—a level of security not seen since the Yellow Vest protests in 2018, revealing the executive branch’s fears of popular unrest. The minister of the interior defended himself by explaining that he wanted to guard against the “anti-police hatred” spread by the far Left. In Paris, the police chief said he was very concerned about the presence of rioters infiltrating the protest marches to cause trouble. The atmosphere is expected to be very tense.
