France has announced preparations for an “international mission” to keep open the Strait of Hormuz, as the war surrounding Iran threatens one of the world’s most important energy routes. The move signals that Paris is considering direct military participation in efforts to secure shipping through the narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf to global markets.
Escalating tensions in the region have already shaken energy markets. Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel this week for the first time in years as traders reacted to the disruption of tanker traffic through the strait.
Brent crude has once again surpassed the 100-dollar-per-barrel threshold, while WTI touched levels close to $120 overnight, figures not seen for years.
The surge reflects investors’ fears that a major share of global oil and liquefied natural gas exports could be disrupted if the crisis in the Gulf deepens.
Approximately one-fifth of the oil traded worldwide passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Any sustained disruption to shipping there quickly reverberates across global markets.
Analysts warn that oil sustained above $100 per barrel could reactivate inflationary pressures that many central banks believed had already been overcome.
Gas once again puts Europe under pressure
If oil reflects the immediate shock of the conflict, natural gas shows how vulnerable Europe remains to global supply disruptions. The geopolitical shock is already feeding directly into higher energy costs for households and businesses.
European benchmark gas prices have surged sharply in recent days, with Dutch TTF futures jumping by around 40–50% over the past week, the largest weekly rise in several years.
The spike reflects fears that liquefied natural gas shipments from the Gulf could be interrupted. A large portion of that gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz before heading toward European terminals.
As gas prices rise, electricity markets across the continent have also reacted: in countries such as France, Germany, Belgium, and Spain, spot electricity prices have risen between 30% and 50% in just 24 hours.
In the United Kingdom, wholesale gas rose by more than 100% in just a few days, leading energy consultancies to anticipate a possible increase of around 10% in the regulated cap of domestic energy bills this summer.
An uncomfortable anniversary for Europe
The latest shock comes as Europe is still adjusting to the energy upheaval triggered by the war in Ukraine.
Russian pipeline gas has largely been replaced by liquefied natural gas from the United States, Qatar and other producers, increasing Europe’s dependence on global maritime routes and more volatile energy markets.
That shift has reshaped the continent’s energy system. Instead of relying primarily on pipelines from the east, Europe now depends far more heavily on global shipping routes and LNG markets — leaving it exposed to disruptions far beyond the continent itself.
Despite Europe’s bold bid to quit Russian gas the continent continues to buy Russian energy indirectly through intermediaries or transformed imports, illustrating how difficult full energy decoupling remains.
The current crisis in the Gulf highlights another aspect of that transformation: replacing one dependency with another does not automatically reduce strategic vulnerability.
If Europe’s energy risks once centred on pipelines from Russia, they are now increasingly tied to maritime routes running through some of the world’s most volatile regions.
