Michel Barnier’s government faces its biggest challenge to date, as it commences discussions on its budget for 2025. Starting on Monday, October 21st, in the National Assembly, it faces opposition from across the political spectrum—making it virtually impossible to secure a majority of votes in support of its bill. There is a palpable risk of the government being discredited and even overthrown.
Last night (October 21st) saw the National Assembly commence scrutiny of the revenue component of the forthcoming budget, amid high tension. Barnier’s government, which has been put together after a period of difficult negotiations, does not yet know exactly which votes it will be able to count on to secure the adoption of its budget, contested on both the Right and the Left.
The government’s proposed plan includes savings in public spending that, along with tax increases, is expected to reduce the €3.16 trillion budget deficit by €60 billion.
The tax measures suggested by Barnier were widely criticised in the Finance Committee, where the Left rejected the entire ‘revenue’ section outright. Measures such as increasing the electricity tax, or toughening the car tax on combustion vehicles, have far from unanimous support. Both the Left and the Right are poised for fierce debates in the plenary session.
To date, no ‘common base’ likely to adopt the budget has emerged. The possible convergence between the Macronist MPs in the centre and part of the government right is not a foregone conclusion: each will defend different options in order to stand out and assert its independence. Even so, this ‘common base’ will hardly exceed 200 MPs—when 289 would be needed to obtain an absolute majority.
If no majority emerges, Barnier will have to resort to forcing the budget through article 49.3 of the Constitution—as one of his predecessors, Élisabeth Borne, did a few months ago. The fact that 3,500 amendments have been proposed to the bill, with the risk of protracted debates, makes the use of 49.3 highly likely.
The use of this institutional procedure, which makes it possible to dispense with a vote by MPs, is fuelling criticism that the government is drifting towards authoritarianism. Michel Barnier has announced that he is very reluctant to use it. He has said that he wants to “let the debates take place.” But although he says he is wary of using it, he is already prepared to do so.
The reason for this is simple: the debates can go on at full speed, the amendments can multiply and allow the different parties to express their own points of view and their disagreements. Ultimately, the government will have the last word, blowing the whistle and imposing the text in the version of its choice.
The use of article 49.3 exposes the government to the risk of being overturned, in reply, by a motion of censure from the deputies. But this risk is low. The left-wing coalition has already announced that it intends to put forward a motion of censure in the event of a 49.3 vote. But neither the Macronists nor the right-wing government will vote for it. The unknown factor remains the attitude of the Rassemblement National (RN): will the party of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella join the Left?
Nothing is less certain, because for the moment, the RN has no interest in doing so. The party of the national Right is preoccupied with the trial over its use of European funds and has no intention of alienating the government in a delicate legal battle with strong political overtones.
In any case, even if the government were to be overthrown, it would only be a temporary reshuffle, as no election can be held for at least eight months. This means that, for the time being, the turmoil in the French National Assembly will look like a game with no major consequences.
