The vote of no confidence in Michel Barnier’s government that had been expected for several weeks was confirmed by a majority of 331 MPs on Wednesday evening, December 4th.
This is the first toppling of a government since 1962—a particularly rare event in French political life. The constitution of the Fifth Republic had indeed been designed by General de Gaulle to avoid at all costs the ministerial instability and rotation of governments that characterised the two previous regimes of the Third and Fourth Republics, but it seems the French are back to these times.
In accordance with his constitutional obligations, Barnier presented his resignation to President Macron on the morning of Thursday, December 5th.
The uncertainty is total after this stunt, which was all too predictable. Emmanuel Macron faces a challenge since he has no institutional weapons at his disposal to overcome the current deadlock in French political life, which stems from his questionable decision to dissolve the National Assembly in June 2024.
Even if he has promised to appoint a new prime minister quickly, there will certainly be no jostling for the position. Barnier is well aware of this, and backstage he wished “good luck” to whoever dares to take over from him. The Élysée Palace has assured us that consultations to find France’s new head of government have already begun.
Censure of the government automatically entails a rejection of the budget proposed by Barnier and his government. Consequently, since there is no risk of a shutdown in the French system, the 2024 budget will be extended until a new agreement is reached. The problem is that the 2024 budget implies a budget deficit for France of around 6%, whereas Barnier’s budget envisaged reducing the deficit to around 5%.
European pressure is intensifying on a France that is the bad pupil of the euro zone with a government deficit that has exploded since Macron came to power. But the catastrophe predicted by the supporters of the Barnier budget may not be around the corner. The Paris stock market woke up on Thursday, December 5th in good shape, despite promises of an immediate financial collapse in the event of a vote of no confidence. The risk of a Greek-style scenario for France cannot of course be ruled out, but it has to be said that the budget painstakingly drawn up by Barnier was by no means a miracle solution to the abysmal problems of France’s public accounts. Made up of a juxtaposition of ad hoc measures, it had, in the words of Marine le Pen at the National Assembly on Wednesday, December 4th, “neither direction nor vision.”
President Macron, who rushed back from Saudi Arabia to witness the fall of the government, is in a particularly uncomfortable position. On Saturday and Sunday, December 7th and 8th, he is due to welcome more than 50 heads of state to Paris to attend the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral. There is no doubt that he will not be celebrating, and that he will have to make an effort to display a façade of optimism in such circumstances. He will then be confronted by the newly and triumphantly elected American President Donald Trump, whose presence will certainly only serve to highlight Macron’s own lack of political legitimacy.
Macron has announced that he will address the French people on the evening of Thursday, December 5th. It is unlikely that he will announce the name of the new prime minister at that time. In his search for the ideal candidate, he has two choices. The appointment of a prime minister from the left-wing coalition is out of the question, as he would be instantly ousted by the RN and the centre, who do not want to hear about it. Although the leftist coalition claims to have won the election in terms of seats, it should be remembered that it only attracted 7 million votes—whereas the RN won over 11 million. The choice of a prime minister with a vague right-wing tinge like Michel Barnier failed. It is therefore more likely that Emmanuel Macron will move towards a centre-left choice, to try to establish a semblance of a majority based on his own party, and on the more moderate members of the left-wing coalition—in this case, the socialists, who are still finding it hard to put up with the outrages of their colleagues from La France Insoumise. The second possible choice is that of a ‘technical’ government with no political colouring. In either case, the result will be stagnation. But for how much longer? There are still two and a half years to go before the end of Macron’s term in office.
