A compromise may finally be emerging in the dispute over SPD Defense Minister Boris Pistorius’ planned conscription law in Germany. The governing coalition and Pistorius appear close to a deal on the controversial lottery system, four weeks after the uproar that pitted the defense minister against his own parliamentary group.
The ambitious target of 5,000 new recruits per year set by Pistorius is impossible to reach just by volunteers, so Berlin had to come up with ideas to meet NATO’s goal of 260,000 active soldiers by 2035, in addition to 200,000 reservists.
While CDU/CSU politicians called for a mandatory recruitment for the German youth, coalition partners SPD opposed the idea, instead proposing a questionnaire-based volunteer system. CSU leader Markus Söder said, “Half measures aren’t enough. … In times of great threat, we need more than a questionnaire-based army,” and called the SPD idea “wishy-washy conscription.” Chancellor Merz sided with Söder. A proposal that initially seemed to overcome the government stalemate was a proposed lottery system: In case of a shortfall of recruits, 18-year-olds could be drafted through a lottery-based selection process. Pistorius has been a vocal critic of this idea, saying this would add only a small number of new recruits, far below the numbers he had in mind.
However, Welt reports, the Ministry of Justice raised constitutional objections to the use of a lottery for conscription. Instead, the current plan foresees mandatory registration for all adult men aged 18 and above starting in 2027, enabling the Bundeswehr to gain a full overview of available manpower.
Military service itself would remain voluntary at first. But if the armed forces fail to attract enough recruits over time, compulsory service could be triggered. In such a scenario, the lottery system could return as a fallback, since negotiators have yet to find a legally sound alternative.
Skepticism persists within the armed forces about whether the plan is feasible. Personnel planners and the German Armed Forces Association doubt that the Bundeswehr has the infrastructure to accommodate 5,000 new recruits each year. According to insiders, there is still no full inventory of barracks capacity and other necessary equipment to host new recruits.
Tensions also persist over the legal and financial status of recruits. Some CDU/CSU politicians argue that the designation “soldier on a temporary basis” (SaZ) should only apply after one year, keeping recruits classified as “voluntary military service members” in the interim, earning slightly less. Others push for immediate SaZ status to offer recruits better pay from day one.
Officials warn that confusion or poor organization could harm retention. “The risk that recruits, lured by higher salaries or the opportunity to obtain a driver’s license, will ultimately drop out due to the chaotic daily routine is real,” one Defense Ministry source said.
