While every party represented in the Bundestag has so far ruled out governing with the AfD—and as some members inside the ‘center-right’ CDU plot to have the right-wing, anti-globalist party banned outright—nearly half of the German population supports the party participating in government, a new opinion poll suggests.
The survey, carried out by the Civey Opinion Research Institute for the liberal newspaper Der Spiegel, indicated that 47% of respondents nationwide said they would find it acceptable if the AfD were involved in governments at the state level in the future, reflecting a massive disconnect between the opinions held by the German public and those of the country’s political establishment.
At the same time, 47% were opposed to the idea, while the remaining 6% were indifferent to the prospect of the AfD entering into government.
At 55%, support for the AfD’s participation in government is, quite unsurprisingly, significantly higher in eastern Germany, considered the party’s geographical stronghold. In states like Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia, the party is polling well ahead of the other parties, between 32% and 35%.
With support levels this high, it makes it difficult to imagine the formation of a governing coalition without the AfD in states such as these. The durability of the cordon sanitaire, or ‘firewall,’ as they call it in Germany, put in place against the AfD by the old establishment parties will be put to the test next fall when the state elections in Saxony, Brandenburg, and Thuringia are held.
Cracks in the firewall have already appeared in the east. In August, for example, Thuringia’s pro-business FDP chief Thomas Kemmerich said that, in some cases, his party plans to vote together with the AfD following next year’s elections.
“We should stop discussing who enforces what with whom, but we should discuss: What should be enforced?” he said.
Only days after Kemmerich made his comments, several leading Thuringian CDU politicians, including MP Michael Heym, Ralph Luther, who has served as a district administrator in southern Thuringia for over two decades, and Ralph Liebaug, the Chairman of the CDU in Schmalkalden-Meiningen, all argued in favor of dismantling of the firewall.
Meanwhile, in western Germany, where the AfD enjoys notable but considerably less support, 44% of those surveyed see no problem with the AfD taking or sharing the reins of power. That said, popular opinion in the western states is shifting in the direction of the AfD. Following AfD’s relatively strong performance in Bavarian and Hessen state elections a little more than a week ago, the party’s co-chief Alice Weidel asserted that the AfD is no longer merely an “eastern phenomenon” but a “pan-German people’s party.”
A further indication that Weidel’s assertion may be true came days ago when an ARD Deutschlandtrend poll revealed nationwide support for the AfD climbed to a new record high.
“New record also in the ARD Germany trend: The AfD is now at 23% here too! In addition, 50% of citizens would like the AfD to be in government where it has performed strongly. A great confirmation of our work!” Weidel wrote on social media.
