The centre-right CDU/CSU and the Social Democrats (SPD) will begin so-called exploratory talks later this week on potentially forming a government.
Following the elections last Sunday, the centre-right alliance lacks a majority in parliament, and a coalition with the SPD is its only viable option after it ruled out cooperating with the second-place right-wing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD).
The return to the so-called ‘grand coalition’ was predictable even before the elections despite the two historically largest parties lambasting each other during the campaign.
As the Financial Times aptly put it: “Now that they [the Social Democrats] have emerged as his only possible coalition partners, he wants to be friends again.”
CDU party leader Friedrich Merz has already made a U-turn on his tough anti-immigration stance to appease his future coalition partners who are unwilling to bypass EU regulations by closing off Germany’s borders to illegal migrants.
The centre-right will also have to make compromises on many other issues it campaigned on if it wants to gain power without the help of the AfD. The CDU/CSU will have to think twice about boosting spending on defence, arming Ukraine, introducing tax cuts, and maintaining the so-called debt brake, the limit on borrowing.
The SPD’s new parliamentary group leader, Lars Klingbeil, has already hinted that negotiations will be tough and said that their support to a CDU-led government was not a given. He added that they will only enter into a coalition with the CDU/CSU if their 360,000 members vote for it.
Klingbeil already criticised Merz and his party on Wednesday, February 26th, for demanding that the outgoing government (headed by the SPD) compile a list of NGOs that had organised protests against the Right and benefited from state funds.
An internal vote within the SPD to determine whether to ally with the CDU/CSU will take weeks and undermine Merz’s attempt at forming a new government by Easter.
The CDU leader has said that there are a number of issues where decisions need to be made as soon as possible, such as security policy in the face of rapidly changing geopolitics, migration, and the poor economic situation.
Merz had campaigned on tough immigration laws, as well as the resurrection of the country’s faltering industrial base, and wants less emphasis on climate change. Will these be challenged by the SPD? Undoubtedly. The return to the grand coalition will be a slap in the face of the electorate which clearly voted for change: more than 28% of their vote went to the CDU/CSU which made bold statements and promised a reversal of radical left-wing policies during the campaign.
Another 21% went to the AfD, the anti-establishment party that has consistently called for a U-turn on the pro-migration policies that have dominated German politics for the past decades.
Merz will not only have to navigate his way through the obstacles set out by the SPD, but will also face a potential blocking minority in the parliament. The AfD and the far-left Die Linke party hold more than a third of the seats, and could therefore oppose decisions that require two-thirds majorities. One such issue is the continued military support of Ukraine.
