Global energy markets reacted quickly to the attacks on Iranian nuclear and military facilities. Oil prices have surged, gas prices are rising, and one of the most important maritime corridors on the planet—the Strait of Hormuz—has again become a flashpoint for global trade.
For Europe, this is not yet a supply crisis, but it is a warning.
In the weeks before the latest escalation, the oil market had been calm. Brent—the international benchmark—was trading mainly between 70 and 80 dollars per barrel.
Everything changed after the war began. Within days, Brent jumped into the 80-dollar range, the sharpest rise in months.
Oil Markets Jolt After Iran Strikes
The rise has come even though global production has not yet fallen significantly, and oil shipments continue. The surge is driven above all by fear that the conflict could widen, that shipments could be disrupted and, above all, that the Strait of Hormuz could remain blocked for too long.
Some financial institutions now expect prices in 2026 to average around 80 dollars per barrel, but say prices could exceed 100 dollars.
Hormuz: The Narrow Passage That Powers the World
At the centre of the crisis is a narrow stretch of water between Iran and Oman. The Strait of Hormuz is barely 50 kilometres wide at its narrowest point, yet a huge share of the world’s energy trade passes through it.
In normal conditions, around 20% of the oil consumed every day on the planet moves through this maritime corridor. That amounts to roughly 13 million barrels per day of crude and condensate. Added to this are large volumes of liquefied natural gas, particularly shipments from Qatar bound for Asia.
Following the escalation, Iranian authorities warned against transiting the Strait, and missile and drone incidents against ships soon followed.
Within hours, tanker traffic started to collapse. Shipping trackers showed a sharp drop in traffic. Some estimates suggest that traffic initially fell by around 70%. More than a hundred ships remained anchored outside the Strait waiting for the situation to stabilize.
Major shipping companies reacted quickly. Firms such as Maersk, CMA CGM, MSC and Hapag-Lloyd began suspending their transits through the area or diverting vessels around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope. That adds weeks to voyages and significantly increases costs.
The impact is not limited to oil. Freight rates, insurance costs, and delivery times are also rising. The disruption spreads across global trade.
Gas Prices Follow Oil Higher
Oil is not the only market affected. Natural gas prices have also begun to rise, particularly in Europe and Asia.
The reasons are similar. For now, there is no immediate shortage of supply, but uncertainty has returned. LNG tankers may be forced to follow longer routes, maritime insurance is becoming more expensive and traders are once again adding a geopolitical risk premium. Leading marine insurers, including members of the International Group of P&I Clubs and markets like Lloyd’s, have issued notices canceling or withdrawing standard war risk coverage for vessels in the Persian Gulf, Iranian waters, and the Strait of Hormuz.
For Europe, the situation is delicate, especially after the EU has cut itself off from Russian energy. Gas reserves currently stand at around 30%, roughly nine percentage points lower than at the same time last year.
European capitals remember well what happened in 2022, when the war in Ukraine sent energy prices soaring. Entire industries cut production, governments spent billions to shield households, and inflation surged.
For now, the main impact on Europe is economic rather than physical: higher energy prices, more expensive maritime transport and greater volatility in the markets.
The Risk of a New Energy Shock
The coming weeks will be decisive in determining whether the situation stabilises or whether the world enters a new energy shock.
If the Strait of Hormuz reopens and maritime traffic returns to normal, prices could stabilise. But if attacks on commercial vessels continue, the world could face a new energy shock.
Higher energy prices would fuel inflation, raise transport costs, and increase pressure on European industries and governments already struggling with tight public finances.
