The news of Pope Francis’ death on Easter Monday morning did not come as a complete surprise, given the pontiff’s deteriorating health over the past few weeks. The schedule is now being accelerated for the organisation of the funeral and the election of his successor.
Of the 252 cardinals currently in office worldwide, 135 cardinals under the age of 80 are considered eligible to vote and will be responsible for choosing Francis’ successor. However, all cardinals are invited to gather in Rome as soon as Tuesday, April 22nd at 9 a.m.—just 24 hours after the death of Pope Francis.
Cardinal Joseph Zen, Bishop Emeritus of Hong Kong, expressed alarm at the haste with which the cardinals were summoned to Rome, which he believes will prevent some of the older cardinals from attending. These cardinals have been asked not to travel if the journey is too difficult for them—a move that Cardinal Zen considers deliberate. The oldest cardinals are mainly those created by Pope Francis’ predecessors, John Paul II and Benedict XVI.
The pontiff’s body has been placed in a coffin and will be laid in state on Wednesday, April 23rd in St Peter’s Basilica, where it will be available for veneration by the faithful. The pope’s funeral will be celebrated on Saturday, April 26th at 10 a.m.
Many heads of state are expected to attend the event, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump. As a sign of respect for the deceased Pope, the U.S. President has announced that all flags on public buildings in the United States will be flown at half-staff. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa will also attend the funeral.
The period ahead will be a long one for the cardinals, who can certainly expect to spend a good month in the Vatican. After the funeral, they will enter conclave to elect the new pope. “I am going there as if on a great spiritual retreat,” said Archbishop and Cardinal of Marseille Msgr. Aveline—often considered one of the closest heirs to the late pope.
Discussions are in full swing about his successor. This is an inevitable but somewhat futile exercise. Conclaves have always had a knack for surprising, and during the last elections, the predictions were almost systematically thwarted: the shortlists of the most likely papabili (people considered to be potential Popes) had for the most part missed the final choice.
Succeeding Francis will be an arduous task.
The most uncertain element of the next election lies in the composition of the College of Cardinals entrusted with it because Francis has contributed more than any other pope to the profound renewal of the College of Cardinals. As a consequence, many cardinals hardly know each other because they have had very few opportunities to meet.
In ten years of pontificate, Francis has made new appointments every year—with the exception of 2021, in the aftermath of the pandemic. This intensive pace was a means of guaranteeing continuity in his course of action, by appointing personalities faithful to his pastoral direction. By way of comparison, Pope John Paul II convened only nine consistories in 25 years, and Benedict XVI, five in eight years of pontificate.
As he made his appointments, Pope Francis took care to dilute the presence of European cardinals. In 2013, 51% of the cardinals who elected Pope Francis were European. Since then, the trend has reversed. In 2016, the 50% mark was crossed, and non-European cardinals now constitute the majority. Given the intensive pace of the creation of new cardinals (121 since 2013), the pontiff could hope that when the time came, there would be a majority, i.e., two-thirds of the cardinals composed solely of cardinals appointed by him. The objective of securing the next election was obvious.
It is nonetheless idle to assume that all these newly created cardinals will vote as one for a candidate who would be the exact continuation of Pope Francis. The ways of the conclave remain inscrutable. And as the saying goes, the Holy Spirit blows where it wills—and especially where it can. It was two conclaves very similar in composition that elected Benedict XVI, the pope of the restoration of tradition, and Francis, the pope of the claimed “mess.”
