Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu may expect difficulty in the run-up to the country’s next elections, following both the weakening of his coalition and the Gaza ceasefire. Some of his allies openly criticise the truce, while several bills in parliament are fuelling political tension.
Israel’s longest-serving prime minister now no longer holds an absolute majority in the Knesset after the so-called coalition crisis in July. Several ultra-Orthodox parties left the government following disputes concerning military service exemptions, leaving the coalition with just 60 of the 120 parliamentary seats.
During the summer recess, the government was temporarily shielded from potential no-confidence motions, but when the Knesset resumed work on October 20, political bargaining and tensions quickly resurfaced.
Netanyahu accepted a ceasefire with Hamas, which came into effect on October 10 at the urging of the United States—but his right-wing allies strongly oppose the agreement and are calling for continued military action in Gaza. Preparations for the next elections are already underway, and early elections could take place as soon as June 2026.
Separately, coalition members—including the ultra-Orthodox Shas and the Religious Zionism party—hold conflicting positions on military service and the future of the occupied territories, further complicating Netanyahu’s position.
Additional pressure comes from the United States, which has warned that any attempt by Israel to annex parts of the West Bank could jeopardise the fragile Gaza ceasefire.
The Israeli financial newspaper Calcalist reports that, to strengthen coalition unity, lawmakers plan to quickly pass legislation that could improve the coalition’s electoral prospects. Measures under consideration include lowering the parliamentary representation threshold and reducing the voting age to 17, which would give ultra-Orthodox parties a demographic advantage.
Netanyahu, who also faces several corruption charges, is all but assured of re-election as leader of Likud at the end of November, as he has no challengers. Despite strong public dissatisfaction with the government, his party continues to lead in all opinion polls—perhaps strengthened by the existential external threat to Israel posed by the Hamas-led October 7 pogrom.
