Germany’s governing coalition has reached a compromise on reinstating military conscription, agreeing that a lottery system will determine which young men will be required to serve.
The deal between the centre-right CDU/CSU and the Social Democrats (SPD) follows months of tense negotiations over how to address the Bundeswehr’s chronic manpower shortages amid rising security concerns in Europe.
According to reports by Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland (RND), all young men will be required to complete a mandatory questionnaire about their willingness and ability to serve.
From this group, a smaller number will be selected by lottery and called in for medical assessment and an interview. Those who volunteer may begin service immediately. However, if there are not enough volunteers, those selected by the draw will be legally obliged to serve for at least six months.
Women will remain exempt from the process, as they are not constitutionally subject to compulsory military service, although they may volunteer.
The final number of recruits will be determined by Defence Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD), who will decide how many conscripts are needed and when recruitment will begin.
The model takes inspiration from Denmark, where conscription formally applies to everyone but only about one-fifth of each cohort is actually called up.
Conscription can be reinstated with the Bundestag’s consent if “the security situation requires a rapid increase in personnel that cannot be achieved voluntarily.”
The new agreement will be discussed by coalition factions on Tuesday, October 14th, with public announcements expected Wednesday, and the first Bundestag reading on Thursday.
Boris Pistorius has stated repeatedly that the Bundeswehr must grow from its current 180,000 soldiers to around 260,000 by the early 2030s to meet NATO requirements. The reintroduction of conscription, even in limited form, marks the most significant shift in German defence policy since it was suspended in 2011.
The issue has sharply divided the coalition. The CDU/CSU has long demanded a “clear duty mechanism” to guarantee the Bundeswehr’s readiness, while the SPD has favoured voluntary service combined with incentives.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently warned that voluntary schemes alone “won’t remain voluntary” for long, acknowledging mounting pressure to expand the army.
AfD defence spokesman Rüdiger Lucassen has criticised both governing parties, saying they were “playing with the possible deployment of German soldiers in Ukraine.”
He said that while the AfD supports the reinstatement of conscription to secure the operational readiness of the armed forces, they oppose “any interventionist foreign policy beyond NATO territory.”
