Friedrich Merz is trying to bypass the newly elected parliament and push through a huge defence investment that could see Germany borrowing up to €900 billion.
On Monday, March 3rd, the leader of the centre-right CDU party said that there is a “great urgency” to make a decision on boosting defence spending, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s public spat with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky last week.
Since the incoming German parliament can only convene at the end of March, Merz aims to rely before then on its predecessor, which has the necessary number of MPs for him to get legislative backing for spending on rearmament. Once again, the CDU leader is ignoring the outcome of the elections and the will of the electorate.
European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen are panicking over what they see as the abandonment of Europe by the United States, in response to Trump mostly wanting his European NATO allies to ‘pay their way’ by spending more on their own militaries, instead of relying eternally on the U.S. for their defence.
Germany’s army is in dire need of investment and the country only just reached the compulsory NATO target of spending 2% of its GDP on defence last year.
The outgoing left-wing government of Olaf Scholz ramped up military spending after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, both to supply weapons to Kyiv and to revamp its own armed forces. Merz, Germany’s likely next chancellor set to lead the incoming government—together with Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD)—wants to boost defence spending even further.
Though Merz did not mention any specific numbers on Monday, economists advising the CDU and the SPD estimate that as much as €400 billion is needed for a special defence fund and up to €500 billion for an infrastructure fund—these sums combined would amount to 20% of German GDP.
Such a big jump in defence spending would lead to a significant increase in government borrowing, but Merz is unfazed and wants to collaborate with the SPD and the Greens—his arch-enemies in presentation only—to push through his proposals.
Merz is a man in a hurry. He wants to get a deal done with the SPD by Thursday, the day of the summit of European leaders.
SPD general secretary Matthias Miersch agrees that there is “an enormous need for investment” but the focus cannot be on the army alone, and spending on infrastructure needs to be boosted too.
An extraordinary session of parliament might be convened next week, which would then allow Merz’s deal with the SPD to pass, with the backing of the Greens.
Merz’s “urgency” is understandable: he requires a two-thirds majority but does not have one in the newly elected parliament, where the right-wing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) and the far-left Die Linke, who oppose further military spending, have more than a third of the seats.
However, the new parliament only convenes at the end of March, and the old parliament has the necessary number of MPs for Merz to get backing for the legislation. The CDU leader is defying the popular will and the election results, just as he did on the issue of migration.
His deal-making with the Left signals yet again that Germany is not on course for change but remains under the leadership of the old guard: this means more left-wing and pro-migration policies, more borrowing, and more debt.
There is a negative mood in Germany surrounding the revival of the so-called ‘grand coalition’ involving the CDU and the SPD. This is reflected in a newly published opinion poll: the AfD and Die Linke have both increased their support since the election on February 23rd, while the CDU, the SPD, and the Greens have all lost support.
Germany, Forsa poll:
— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) March 4, 2025
CDU/CSU-EPP: 28% (-1)
AfD-ESN: 22% (+1)
SPD-S&D: 15% (-1)
LINKE-LEFT: 12% (+3)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 11% (-1)
FDP-RE: 3% (-1)
BSW-NI: 3% (-2)
+/- vs. last election
Fieldwork: 24 February-3 March 2025
Sample size: 3,001
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