The war in Ukraine is burning through weaponry, ammunition, and manpower faster than NATO had ever anticipated, a top NATO general admitted at a security conference, reported the Business Insider. In particular, the heavy casualties and consumption of ammunition are spreading concerns among the leaders of the Atlantic Organisation.
“The magnitude of this war is incredible,” U.S. Army General Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) told the audience at a defense conference in Stockholm. “The scale of this war is out of proportion with all our recent thinking,” he said, “but it is real and we must contend with it.”
Ever since the Cold War ended, Cavoli pointed out, ammunition stockpiles have been diminishing and factories closing down across the entire European continent. The high-intensity warfare being conducted in Ukraine, and the apparently insatiable appetite for weaponry that it commends, has now prompted Europeans to ramp up arms production significantly—whether in time to make a difference is yet to be seen.
“Production capacity remains vital,” Cavoli said, especially referring to artillery shells. “If we average out since the beginning of the war, the slow days and fast days, the Russians have expended on average well over 20,000 artillery rounds per day,” the general said, implying that Kyiv—no matter the assistance—can not match these numbers in the short run.
However, what Ukraine lacks in absolute numbers in terms of weaponry it can make up for in quality. According to Cavoli, Ukraine’s past successes on the battlefield testify to the notion that “precision can beat mass.” But to give precision an edge, one must also compensate with time, space, and planning to stay ahead.
The West’s painfully apparent lack of adequate ammunition supplies also provides a valuable lesson, Cavoli believes. Whereas the decades of peace had led some countries on the continent, such as Germany, to believe that soft power can be a substitute for military might, now it’s clear that one needs both. Diplomacy, cyber capabilities, and economic strength remain just as important, Cavoli noted, “but the great irreducible feature of warfare is hard power, and we have to be good at it,” he said. “If the other guy shows up with a tank, you better have a tank.”
As of February 8th, according to the calculations of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Russia has lost over 3,200 tanks and 134 thousand troops in the war. However, some experts are skeptical about these figures, including Cavoli, who claimed at the conference that the number of destroyed or captured Russian tanks is closer to 2,000. Documented photographic evidence proves that Moscow has lost at least 1,688 tanks, while Kyiv’s losses stand at only 459 main battle tanks.
