With Spain’s conservative and centre-right parties blaming each other for their disappointing election results, the runner-up socialist party and its political associates are ploughing ahead with plans to form a government.
Spanish media relates that on election night, euphoria pervaded the headquarters of the Partido Socialist Obrero Español (PSOE). Though it technically lost, as the centre-right Partido Popular (PP) was most voted for and surpassed the PSOE by 14 seats in parliament, the loss was not as drastic as feared, and given the number of seats won by its political partners, it’s still possible for sitting president Pedro Sánchez to reform his coalition government.
Many analysts believe it’s the most likely scenario. Sánchez will have it a little trickier than he did four years ago as the left-wing Catalan party, Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya, that supported his last tenure as president lost a seat and hence its ability to be kingmaker. Sánchez will need at least the abstention of the more right-leaning Catalan party, Junts Per Cat, to maintain the presidency, which is, again, possible.
Sánchez seems to believe he has his investiture already accomplished.
Sánchez didn’t even congratulate the PP or its leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo on its technical election victory. El Mundo also reports that Sánchez and his team are not even contemplating an initial meeting with Feijóo, nor even calling the Federal Committee, the parliamentary governing body that operates in between parliaments.
El Mundo‘s sources said the party leader told his inner circle on election night that they should let “people enjoy the holidays.”
“On August 17, the Cortes are constituted,” he said, referring to when the newly elected parliament will come together. “Spain is a parliamentary democracy with its deadlines and procedures.”
Nevertheless, Sumar, the junior partner in the likely leftist coalition government, is eager to get negotiations underway. The party has called for PSOE to sit down for talks on the future government including ministerial positions and policy points and has also reached out to the leader of the linchpin Catalan party Junts Per Cat, the fugitive Carles Puigdemont.
Junts Per Cat has made it clear it has no interest in the formation of a Spanish government and is willing to vote against any candidate. What it wants are two things: pardons for all those involved in the illegal referendum in Cataluña and the right for the region to hold its own referendums, which would pave the way for another attempt at forcing Catalan independence through polls.
The PSOE is far more likely than the PP to be willing to meet Junts Per Cat’s demands.
The more moderate Basque nationalist party (PNV) has also already made overtures to the PSOE as it lost votes to socialists in the election and doesn’t see any advantages to repeat elections. It further blamed the PP for “whitewashing VOX.” As with the Canary and Navarran regional parties, PNV has said it will not support a VOX-PP coalition. VOX would have to agree to be sidelined to allow for more support for the PP and prevent, if still possible, the formation of a leftist government.
Meanwhile, the PP is also sticking to its plan and campaign promise to first negotiate a small policy program with the PSOE to allow the PP to take the reins of government alone as the winning party. It is also turning to other parties already.
“Spanish people asked for change, stability, and dialogue between the two main political forces”, a source told Euractiv. It added that the PP will also contact VOX, but stressing that “under no circumstances will VOX be part of the new government.”
With Spain in the EU presidency and European elections coming up next year, the shortfall of the Right in Spain is having repercussions in Brussels as well.
A drawn-out process to form a government or repeat elections will put Sánchez in a weak position and it also supports those in the centre-right who stand against leaning on conservative parties such as VOX and its EU group the ECR.
Euractiv reports that EPP leader Manfred Weber had hoped Spanish elections would turn out like the recent results in Sweden and Finland where the centre-right is governing with the help of conservative parties. It also reports that relations between Weber and EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, who is also associated with the EPP, have reached a low point due to the EPP aligning with the ECR to attempt to implode the Nature Restoration Law, a key point of von der Leyen’s Green Deal.
Meanwhile, back in Spain, analysts fear that Sánchez’ ability to form a government further points to a creeping slide into banana republic democracy. In the past, even when a single party failed to win an absolute majority, the second-place party allowed the winner to form a government as a democratic courtesy.
They also warn that both the PP and VOX should consider that the political Right has fallen behind the Left since it divided with the rise of VOX.
Unlike the Left, which demonstrates a clear synergy among the different parties despite certain differences, they note that PP and VOX have maintained not only a greater distance but even a certain antagonism between them.
They assessed that to put the Spanish Right on more solid ground, the two parties can at least start by ceasing to point the finger at each other and entering a period of self-reflection.
