U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, much-coveted by the government in Kyiv, are one step closer to flying over Ukrainian lands.
In an August 20th joint statement, Denmark and the Netherlands declared they had agreed to
transfer F-16 aircrafts to Ukraine and the Ukrainian Air Force in close cooperation with the U.S. [the approval of which nations that possess F-16s require] and other partners, when the conditions for such a transfer are met. Conditions include, but are not limited to, successfully selected, tested and trained Ukrainian F-16 personnel as well as necessary authorizations, infrastructure and logistics.
The joint statement by Denmark and the Netherlands came on the same day that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a quick visit to Eindhoven, the Netherlands, to inspect the promised F-16s.
Prior to visiting the Netherlands, Zelensky had been in Sweden, another member of the fighter coalition, to discuss the possibility of receiving Gripen jets. Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson said in an interview with TV4 on Monday morning, August 21st, that there are currently no plans for Sweden to provide Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine, and commented:
Sweden is a geographically very large country, we have to defend ourselves, we are not yet a member of NATO. We also have to strike a balance between what we can spare for them and what we must have ourselves.
Last week, Washington formally approved the transfer of F-16 training materials to Denmark. In a letter to both Denmark and the Netherlands, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that, once the Ukrainian pilots are trained, Washington would grant both countries’ requests to transfer their aircraft to Ukraine.
After Zelensky was given a brief tour of fighters in the presence of outgoing Prime Minister Rutte, Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra, and Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren, he and Rutte entered the departure hall of the military airfield for a brief press conference.
The F-16s, Zelensky said, can help prevent “thousands of civilian casualties.” The Ukrainian president personally thanked Rutte for the “leading role” he had played in making it possible. “Sometimes political consultations are rather routine,” Zelensky said. “But what we discuss with Mark [Rutte] is always interesting and important.”
Unlike previous arms deliveries, such as when the West was debating the delivery of tanks to Ukraine, it was not Germany’s Chancellor Scholz who, at least initially, put up resistance.
Fearing the deployment of aircraft might bring NATO into direct confrontation with Russia, which has frequently stated it would consider such a course of action as another ‘red line’, the U.S. showed squeamishness over the idea.
While the delivery of Western aircraft now seems a fait accompli, few concrete details are known. During the press conference, Rutte merely stated that, currently, the Netherlands has 42 aircraft (of which 24 are in active service), which Zelensky appeared to have interpreted as meaning these would all be handed over, thereby leaving the Netherlands without any to defend itself.
By the middle of next year, all F-16s are scheduled to be replaced by the F-35, making the then-outdated fighters available. Denmark, part of the eleven-member ‘fighter coalition’ to help Ukraine obtain Western fighter aircraft, has also indicated its willingness to supply F-16s.
To advance that cause, Zelensky left for Denmark following his Netherlands trip.
During Zelensky’s visit, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that Denmark will deliver 19 jets in total, with the first six due to be shipped to Ukraine around New Year, followed by eight in 2024 and five the following year.
“We know that your freedom is our freedom. We also know that you need more” weapons, Frederiksen said during a joint press conference with Zelensky at Skrydstrup air base in Denmark.
Before any F-16s would actually be delivered by the Netherlands, Rutte emphasized that Ukraine’s infrastructure (i.e. runways) must be improved. “The F-16 is a sensitive aircraft,” he said.
What also became clear from the press conference was that certain stipulations, such as a guarantee from Kyiv it will not use the gifted fighters for attacks on Russian territory, have yet to be agreed upon.
Regardless, the F-16s are not expected to see battle until early next year, meaning they will play no role in Ukraine’s hard-going counteroffensive, which has yet to produce a breakthrough.
Last week, anonymous American intelligence sources told The Washington Post that they do not expect the counteroffensive’s primary strategic goal, severing Russia’s land bridge to the Crimean peninsula (by taking the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub), to be realized before winter sets in.
The newspaper had also spoken with Ukrainian and other Western intelligence sources who were of the same opinion, citing the difficulties Ukrainian troops face as they have to cross minefields and contend with drones, helicopters, and artillery fire before even reaching Russia’s formidable defensive lines.
