As voters head into a second round between a Socialist-backed candidate and the populist Chega leader André Ventura, a familiar pattern has emerged. Much of what is still labelled the “centre-right” is lining up behind the Left—not out of conviction, but to stop Chega from winning.
Figures linked to the governing mainstream, particularly within the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and liberal circles, have signalled their readiness to back the Socialist option. The move is framed as responsible, even necessary. But it reveals something more basic: the centre-right no longer acts as a political force in its own right.
Where did the centre-right go?
Historically, Portugal’s centre-right had a clear home. That role was filled by the CDS–People’s Party, a Christian-democratic, conservative party that offered an alternative to socialist rule while fully accepting the constitutional order established after 1974.
Today, the CDS has been pushed to the margins. Its collapse has left a gap that no other party has filled. The PSD, despite its name, has long operated as a centrist management party rather than a conservative one. Iniciativa Liberal promotes free markets, but its cultural positions sit comfortably within the progressive mainstream.
The result is simple: there is no longer a recognisable centre-right camp. Instead, Portugal has a centrist establishment that alternates in power with the Socialist Party (PS), and a protest right that challenges the system from the outside.
A run-off as a containment exercise
In theory, the two-round system is meant to produce clear outcomes. In practice, it often turns elections into exercises in containment. As in France, Portugal’s run-off has triggered calls for a “democratic front,” urging voters to unite behind the Socialist candidate to block a challenger deemed unacceptable.
The argument is familiar. Chega is portrayed as a danger to democracy and must be stopped at all costs. What gets less attention is why a growing number of voters are drawn to Ventura in the first place.
For many, the appeal is not ideological extremism but frustration. A voter worried about rising crime in their neighbourhood, years-long hospital waiting lists, or repeated corruption scandals may feel that power changes hands but nothing really changes. When the same parties govern in slightly different combinations and deliver similar results, protest becomes attractive—even risky protest.
A system closing ranks
By backing a Socialist candidate, parties described as “centre-right” signal that their real red line is not left-wing policy, but any challenge to the post-1974 political settlement itself. The run-off is therefore less a contest between left and right than a clash between the system and those who reject it.
That strategy may make sense in the short term. Over time, it carries a cost. When voters conclude that elections do not lead to meaningful change, trust drains away. Politics becomes about managing continuity rather than offering alternatives.
Portugal is not unique. A similar dynamic can be seen in Spain, where the PSOE and the People’s Party dominate power while challengers are treated as threats rather than competitors.
Across Europe, many centre-right parties have diluted their identity or disappeared altogether. What remains are centrist formations that govern much like the left, present themselves as guardians of stability, and rely on tactical alliances to block movements to their right—while rarely showing the same urgency about expansion on the left.
