Europe’s populist revolt continues apace in Great Britain, where Nigel Farage’s Reform has just outpolled both the major establishment parties for the first time.
Reform has been performing better than the Tories—who now often appear to be ‘conservative’ in name only—for about six months. New leader Kemi Badenoch’s implausible rhetoric on migration in particular has given them little cause for celebration, and it appears that the party is also running out of cash.
Reform overtaking the governing Labour Party is more impressive, though again unsurprising, given prime minister Keir Starmer’s continued failure on migration, his attacks on free speech and his anti-Brexit toadying to the European Union—not to mention his government’s alleged role in covering up important details of the Southport murders.
This rise is, however, more than a negative response to the failings of the establishment. The impressive growth of the party’s membership and the unprecedented speed of ticket sales to its political conferences shows that, as Farage himself says, “Britain wants Reform.”
And while the one-point lead in this YouGov poll might be within the margin of error, previous results suggest that the gap will grow in next to no time.
This could have major implications, even beyond increasing champagne sales around Reform HQ. For starters, Starmer might have to rein in his expectations during ongoing ‘Breset’ talks, as selling out further to Brussels in areas such as Net Zero and—that all-important issue, again—migration is bound to add another point or two to Reform’s lead. The rising strength of Farage’s influence might indeed go some way to explaining why top EU officials are supposedly tempering their own ambitions too. It could also have played some small part in Starmer’s refusal to side with Brussels against Farage’s pal, President Donald Trump, who made recent tariff threats. Simply put, Starmer is weakened by Reform’s growth.
Journalist Allison Pearson, who last year suffered at the hands of (Conservative and Labour-devised) ‘hate speech’ laws, complained that the poll results were not central to a BBC interview with Farage this morning. But if his momentum holds through the May local elections—that is, where Labour hasn’t cancelled them—mainstream reporters will be even more hard pressed to consign Reform’s rise to the sidelines.
