Leftist parties together with the center-right EPP dominated the European Parliament in the past five years, practically excluding the two conservative groups (ECR and ID) from Brussels’ decision-making process. However, it’s not going to be easy to do so after June 2024 if the latest predictions materialize.
The projections published by EU Matrix, a leading Brussels-based analytical research agency, on December 5th, predicts left-wing parties losing seats across Europe to the sovereigntist Right, finally making a right-wing majority in the EU Parliament a possibility.
The two largest establishment parties, the center-right EPP and the social-democrat S&D—who voted together in nearly 9 out of 10 cases during the past term—are projected to largely preserve their current number of seats.
The greatest losers of the 2024 EU elections appear to be the Greens—predicted to lose 26 to 31 seats, depending on newly recruited members—and the liberal Renew, with a loss of 10-11 seats. The far-left, however, will likely stay at the same level, keeping its current 36 seats.
The conservative groups are projected to be the biggest winners of a potential political shake-up in Brussels. The European Conservative and Reformists (ECR)—home to Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia and the Polish PiS—could gain 13 to 24 seats, while the Identity and Democracy (ID) Group—mostly known for Le Pen’s National Rally, the German AfD, and Salvini’s Lega—could grow by 22-41 seats, overtaking the ECR as the second-largest conservative bloc.
If all new prospective members are recruited and added to the current party composition—in the case of the ID, new members would include the Gert Wilders’ PVV, the Polish Konfederacja, the Bulgarian Revival, and the Romanian AUR—the nationalist-sovereigntist bloc can even surpass Renew and become the third-largest party in the Parliament.
Regarding coalition projections, the left-leaning, centrist trio made of EPP, S&D, and Renew could still have the largest majority, but—unlike after the 2019 elections—the three right-wing parties might also surpass the threshold needed to adopt decisions.
There is a fair chance of this happening in case of several key decisions, because—as the researchers pointed out after analyzing the new party lists—the internal composition of EPP is also shifting to the right due to voter preferences back home, which will result in more center-right MEPs siding with the conservatives instead of their old socialist-liberal allies.
Other findings from the preliminary list of MEPs likely to enter Parliament next year indicate the potential for a generational and gender shift as well. Women are predicted to make up over 40% of the next Parliament and will be a significant majority among the Greens. Younger MEPs (below 40) will make up about 20%—45% in the case of the Greens—while the senior cohort (above 60) will shrink to 15%, most belonging to EPP.
Interestingly, there are a lot more heavyweights running for re-election, indicating that national positions are becoming less and less attractive compared to jobs in Brussels. The researchers think this might be because of the increasing instability in national politics throughout Europe. While an MEP has a mostly safe spot for five years, European governments nowadays hardly get through their usual four, and their failures often lead to snap elections when everything changes, like in the Netherlands.
Calculating the average lifespan of governments in the past ten years, 8 European countries stand at 2 years or less—including France, the UK, Italy, and Austria—while two countries (Romania and Bulgaria) don’t even reach one year on average. Previously stable countries (like Germany and the Netherlands) also began to show signs of political instability lately, and that trend is only predicted to increase, the research notes.
