According to police figures, 151 shootings were recorded nationwide between January and November this year, nearly half the total reported in all of 2024. The decline follows earlier drops from 2023 and 2022.
However, Sven Granath, criminologist with the Stockholm Police and a visiting researcher at Stockholm University, said the reduction reflects more targeted policing, including the arrest of violent offenders and an increase in weapons seizures.
“More weapons have also been seized in recent years, and that has an effect,” Granath said. However, he cautioned that the underlying drivers of organised crime remain in place.
While shootings have decreased, bombings have risen sharply. Police recorded 181 detonations in the first eleven months of this year, compared with 136 during the same period last year. Granath said the increase is largely linked to extortion and unresolved debts within criminal networks.
This assessment is echoed by the broader picture of Sweden’s gang violence. Criminal networks have increasingly relied on bombings and young recruits, deploying makeshift explosives as tools of intimidation in turf wars and extortion schemes.
The most alarming trend, however, is the surge in child involvement. During the first eleven months of this year, 158 children under the age of 15 were suspected of involvement in murder plots, up from 109 in the same period last year and just 36 in 2023.
“It reflects that the motives for extortion are still there,” he said. “Very personal conflicts may have been reduced, but debts and extortion remain.”
Authorities are also increasingly concerned about the involvement of minors. Police data show that 158 children under the age of 15 were suspected of involvement in murder plots during the first eleven months of this year, up from 109 in the same period in 2024 and 36 in 2023.
Granath said digital communication has made it easier for criminal groups to recruit vulnerable children, often from low-income households. “Every 13-year-old walks around with a computer in their pocket and is accessible to serious criminals around the world,” he said. He has previously suggested restrictions on smartphone use for children under 15 as a possible preventive measure.
Security analysts say Sweden has become a focal point for gang violence involving firearms and explosives. Arvid Hallén, programme director at the Swedish conservative think tank Oikos, said criminal organisations in Sweden use guns and bombings “at a level which is unique in Europe,” often directing operations from abroad via encrypted messaging apps.
Sweden’s firearm homicide rate ranked third highest in Europe in 2022, behind only Montenegro and Albania, according to European crime data. Although overall homicides fell in 2024, gun violence remains the most common cause of violent death.
The rise in youth involvement has prompted political action. The government has announced plans to lower the age of criminal responsibility from 15 to 13 for serious offences such as murder and bombings, arguing that gangs deliberately exploit legal protections for minors.
The causes of the violence remain a subject of political debate, with some critics linking the problem to decades of immigration and integration policy. The government says recent declines in shootings suggest tougher laws and expanded police powers are beginning to have an effect, while acknowledging that organised crime and bombings remain a serious challenge.
