Brussels is preparing to drive up the price of nicotine products across Europe with a sweeping tax hike that several governments say was written by activists, not elected officials.
The draft, prepared by the Danish EU presidency in coordination with the European Commission, would raise the minimum tax on heated tobacco from the €155 per kilogram originally put forward by the Commission to €360 per kilogram and impose a mandatory minimum tax of 55% of the retail price.
This is not a minor technical tweak. It is a fundamental rewrite of how Europe taxes newer nicotine products—especially heated tobacco—that many governments have promoted as less harmful alternatives to cigarettes.
The consumer impact would be immediate. In Greece, prices would rise by the equivalent of €1.70 on a 20-unit pack; in Italy by €1.10; and in Sweden, nicotine pouches would jump by €2.80 per can. But what has unsettled many EU capitals most is not just the size of the increases—it’s where the numbers appear to have come from.
Multiple sources admit privately that the figures included in the Danish text “match word for word” the proposals circulated by activist networks such as Smoke-Free Europe. They also note that at least one academic behind the research relied on by these NGOs has received funding from the European Commission—fueling concerns about a self-reinforcing cycle in which Brussels finances advocacy work that is then used to justify its own policy proposals. This is something the Patriots for Europe group has actively denounced.
Governments’ anger has been building for over a year. Member States repeatedly asked for basic safeguards: proper impact studies, gradual and proportionate tax rises, realistic deadlines, and guarantees that smokers would still be encouraged to switch away from cigarettes. None of those demands made it into the Presidency’s draft.
Instead, the text delivers exactly what activist groups have been calling for. It broadens the definition of “raw tobacco” so that any harvested leaf can be taxed; reclassifies waterpipe tobacco so it is taxed like cigarettes; keeps high minimum taxes on e-liquids despite warnings about black markets; and imposes a rigid timetable of tax hikes on nicotine pouches—overriding the harm-reduction models used in Nordic and Baltic countries.
The directive will lock in minimum tax rates and definitions across the entire EU for years to come—shaping nicotine policy for at least the next decade. That is why several Member States say the Danish Presidency has crossed a red line by trying to rush through tax levels that were never discussed in public consultations or agreed in earlier Council talks. For many capitals, the move erodes trust in EU decision-making and risks widening long-standing divides between north and south, and between east and west.
What is now at stake goes far beyond tax rates. As one EU official put it, this has become a fight over who really sets public-health policy in Europe. Is it national governments, accountable to voters—or a small circle of activist groups, some of them funded with EU money, whose priorities increasingly shape the Commission’s laws?
