Spain’s conservative Partido Popular (PP) is pulling ahead in opinion polls following a strong performance by party leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo in a live TV debate with the prime minister. This has increased the likelihood of a grand coalition of the Spanish Right consisting of the PP and VOX. Spain is just 10 days out from snap elections, called by socialist PM Pedro Sánchez and his PSOE party, after poor results in regional elections in May.
After a live evening debate on Monday, July 10th, between the two party leaders, polling showed a considerable electoral bump for the PP, solidifying its 6% lead in polls over its socialist rival PSOE. Both Sánchez and Feijóo focused on the other’s potential coalition partner, with Feijóo’s arguments winning the day. The PP leader said that PSOE’s implicit solidarity with regional separatists posed a major risk to Spanish unity.
PSOE’s perceived backing of Catalan separatism has severely undermined their traditional voter base in recent years, and it partly triggered their recent electoral slump. Despite Sánchez’s claims that the PP was attempting to revive Francoism by potentially allying with VOX, he failed to land major blows to the opposition.
According to projections for the next Spanish Parliament, the PP would likely win just shy of 150 out of 350 seats and be able to fashion a working majority with VOX who are predicted to potentially command 34 seats.
Indeed, VOX and PP have commenced cooperation at various regional assemblies, symbiotically working to roll back official support for LGBT+causes and direct public funds into pro-family initiatives.
Increasingly, the primary battle in the final stretch of the campaign is between VOX and the progressive Sumar party. The question is whether VOX will secure third place over Sumar, which rose from the ashes of the anti-austerity Podemos party in March. Polls put the two parties neck and neck, with each expected to get approximately 12% of the vote.
Founded in 2013 on the promise of protecting Spanish unity against rising separatism and alleged treachery from the Madrid government, VOX entered institutions in 2018 after cementing its place as the third strongest force in Spanish politics.
While both VOX and PP have downplayed a potential coalition, it would follow a wider European trend of right-wing populist parties entering government with conservative parties as junior partners, as seen in Finland and Sweden earlier this year.
A win for the Right in Madrid would have significant knock-on effects on European politics unfolding at the start of Spain’s six-month-long agenda-setting presidency of the European Council. It could also reignite the question of Catalan independence, following the EU’s recent steps to remove the immunity of exiled Catalan MEPs.
