A new American poll of Hungarian voters conducted recently indicates a further strengthening of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s position and continued dominance for Fidesz. According to the survey, “if the election were held this Sunday, Fidesz would have 44 percent,” while the majority of respondents view Orbán as the most likely prime minister after 2026. The same research also shows that the recently leaked collection of studies has significantly damaged the perception of the Tisza Party, with an “overwhelming majority” rejecting nearly all of the austerity proposals contained in the document.
The American pollster McLaughlin & Associates published results from a previous poll on the Hungarian elections in mid-September. At that time, the governing parties stood at 43%, while the Tisza Party was at 37%. The new survey, conducted in late November, now shows an increase for Fidesz and a damaged reputation for their main challengers, the Tisza Party.
Alongside the two main parties, only Our Country (Mi Hazánk) would reach 5%, the level needed to get into parliament, which would result in a three-party parliament.
Respondents were also asked who they believed had the best chance of becoming prime minister after 2026, regardless of their own party preference. “51 percent consider Viktor Orbán to be the frontrunner next year; only 42 percent consider Péter Magyar,” the report states.
Another major focus of the survey was public reaction to the Tisza Party’s document leaked recently, planning for major tax raises. The research asked whether people believed the document could be linked to the Tisza Party. “According to 62 percent of respondents, the document is authentic, and only 27 percent believe that the collection of studies cannot be linked to the Tisza Party,” examined the polling institution.
The poll also measured the reactions to specific proposals contained in the leaked text. One of the most controversial was a suggested increase of Value Added Tax (VAT) from the current 27% to 32%. The measure was overwhelmingly rejected: “74 percent of respondents reject increasing VAT to 32 percent, and another 9 percent would rather not agree with the measure.”
Public opinion was similarly negative toward the possibility of charging for certain health services, including pediatric examinations and specialist appointments. Again, over 80% of the respondents “strongly” rejected—or “leaned toward rejection” of—this proposed reform.
A proposed 20% pension tax was also met with firm resistance. “The idea of a pension tax was strongly rejected by 69 percent of respondents, and a further 12 percent rather disagreed with it,” claims the report. The final proposal tested was the abolition of GYED—the maternity-related social insurance benefit paid to parents—to be replaced by a paid insurance-based package. Here too, the reaction was overwhelmingly negative.
Taken together, the findings of the American poll show two clear trends: Viktor Orbán and Fidesz continue to hold a strong electoral advantage, and the leaked Tisza Party proposals have significantly undermined public trust in the party.
