There is perhaps no better indication of just how out-the-loop the European establishment has been on the Ukraine peace developments than Friedrich Merz saying last week he was “sceptical of some of the details” of the U.S. plan, as conveyed to him by Kyiv, before hailing a “truly remarkable” development on Monday that really must have been in the works for some time.
Donald Trump said on Monday that peace was “closer now than ever,” after it was revealed that a deal to end the war in Ukraine would be backed—as one of his officials explained—by “really, really strong guarantees.” The figure described these as “Article Five-like,” referring to the NATO treaty that sees an attack on one ally an attack on all.
They also urged Kyiv to accept the deal, because “those guarantees will not be on the table forever.”
German Chancellor Merz seemed pretty elated, saying at a conference of world leaders in Berlin—which perhaps explains why he has talked up the developments so much—that “we now have the chance for a real peace process.” He said that a ceasefire must be “secured by substantial legal and material security guarantees from the United States and Europe, which the United States has put on the table here in Berlin in terms of legal and material guarantees.”
This is truly remarkable. This is a very important step forward, which I very much welcome.
Moscow must, of course, agree to a deal before one can be celebrated too widely, and questions remain over territory—although Volodymyr Zelensky has said he believes the proposals are “pretty good.”
A handful of European leaders will no doubt be pleased to have been asked to contribute to future peacekeeping initiatives, even if large question marks hang over their actual capabilities. Indeed, the fact a possible multinational force will have the backing of the U.S. appears far more important than the presence of any force itself.


