As the world prepares for the upcoming summit between U.S. president Donald Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, August 15th, Europe finds itself struggling to form a coherent strategy on Ukraine.
European leaders have called for Ukraine’s inclusion in any discussions about a possible ceasefire deal, yet the reality remains that it is Trump who has taken the lead in seeking a resolution to the conflict.
A joint statement over the weekend from France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Britain, Finland, and EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen emphasized that “the path to peace in Ukraine cannot be decided without Ukraine.”
The EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, echoed these concerns, saying any deal between the U.S. and Russia must include Ukraine and the EU to protect both Ukraine’s sovereignty and Europe’s security.
Trump’s approach has raised alarm bells. In a recent statement, he suggested that some territorial “swapping” could benefit both sides.
U.S. vice president JD Vance said in an interview with Fox News on Sunday that the United States was going to “try to find some negotiated settlement that the Ukrainians and Russians can live with.”
It’s not going to make anybody super happy, both the Russians and the Ukrainians probably at the end of the day are going to be unhappy with it.
Kyiv staunchly rejects the prospect of the U.S. brokering a deal that requires Ukraine to cede occupied territory to Russia. President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized over the weekend that “Ukrainians will not give their land to the occupier.”
Despite these warnings, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte acknowledged that some form of territorial concession may be inevitable in the future.
“We must acknowledge that Russia is controlling part of Ukrainian territory,” Rutte said, suggesting that future peace talks may involve recognizing Russia’s “de facto” control over certain areas.
However, he stressed that this should not be seen as a legal recognition of Russian sovereignty over Ukrainian land.
Russia currently has full control of the Luhansk region as well as the Crimean peninsula, which it annexed in 2014. Three other regions, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia are under partial Russian occupation.
The possibility that Ukraine could be pressured to give up territory is worrying many European leaders who believe that such an outcome would reward Russian aggression and undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz echoed these concerns. “We cannot accept that territorial questions are discussed or even decided between Russia and America over the heads of Europeans and Ukrainians,” Merz stated.
European officials are demanding security guarantees, such as NATO membership for Kyiv, before any territorial concessions are made.
In a last-ditch effort to sway the U.S., European foreign ministers will meet virtually on Monday, August 11th, to discuss their strategy for the upcoming summit.
Yet, despite these efforts, it is clear that the European response has been fragmented and reactive, with much of the initiative now lying in Trump’s hands. The U.S. is not only leading diplomatic efforts but may also be determining the outcome of the conflict.
