A record number of Conservative MPs are likely to walk away from politics at this year’s general election because they don’t want to spend years in opposition.
Already, 58 Tory MPs won’t stand at the next election, which is more than at any time since 1997, when the party was wiped out at the polls. With pundits expecting similar electoral results this year, Conservative insiders say the figure is bound to top 100.
One senior Tory source told The Sunday Times that “it’s going to be well over 100 in the end.” Others informed respected political writer Tim Shipman that those abandoning the party were not doing so because they feared losing their seats if they did stand in the election but because they feared winning them. One asked:
Why stick around to get smashed in an election and spend ten years in opposition?
Even after weeks of Labour infighting and a string of embarrassing U-turns from leader Sir Keir Starmer, polls suggest that the approval rating gap between Starmer and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is now the widest it has ever been, with Labour comfortably on top. Huge Conservative losses in two by-elections last week appear to have really hammered home the message that Sunak is leading his party to wider electoral oblivion.
Shipman quoted another MP who will quit at the next election because they fear that all the liberal-centrist Tory MPs will be voted out, leaving only the “nutters” behind:
I’m not going because I think I’m going to lose, I’m going because I’m worried I might win.
Things have gotten so bad that some Tory officials believe the number of their colleagues leaving the sinking ship could reach 150. That compares to just 12 Labour MPs who have so far said they will quit at the next election.
Professor Tim Bale told the Financial Times that too many Tory MPs now “realise that the game is up.” He added that from this point on, “the game is about the battle for the soul of the party post-election.”
