British newspapers are filled daily with speculation over the timing of the next general election. But what is already certain is that whenever it comes, voters are not apathetic about any likely Labour victory.
A new analysis of economic and polling data by political consultancy Public First suggests that a Labour landslide is still not in the bag and that its road to victory will be “paved with indifference, rather than … enthusiasm.”
It has been clear for some time that voters—especially those in the more working-class, so-called ‘Red Wall’ constituencies that switched from Labour to the Conservatives in 2019 in the hope of ‘getting Brexit done’—are more than prepared to call time on 14 years of Tory rule which has seen immigration spiral completely out of control and ‘woke’ beliefs treated as though they were the norm.
It has also, therefore, been common for pundits to compare the Conservative Party’s likely upcoming defeat to the wipeout it suffered in 1997. The difference, though, is that there is only a very little sense of preparedness—never mind excitement—for an upcoming Labour government.
This should come as no surprise, since Labour under its current leader Sir Keir Starmer is more zealous when it comes to the green agenda, more ‘woke,’ and cares even less about open borders than some of the most left-wing Tory MPs. Its ongoing antisemitism crisis will only have further entrenched the impression of the modern Labour party as an incompetent force disconnected from the working class.
The Public First analysis suggests that “voters are less likely to see Starmer’s Labour party as ready to form a government than [1997 victor Tony] Blair’s Labour party, and fewer still identify Starmer himself as ready to be prime minister.”
It found that all the Labour bigwigs—and Conservative ministers, for that matter—are viewed less favourably than their 1997 counterparts.
Denis MacShane, who served as Europe Minister under Tony Blair, said he has long been “nervous of the gung-ho ‘It’s in the bag’ line” touted by his Labour friends, who he said ought to approach the election with “caution.”
Public First also argued that however convincing his upcoming electoral victory, Sir Keir will struggle to achieve any big wins in office, regardless of his own competency, because of the dire state of the country’s finances. It said:
Voters are less positive about the country’s economic prospects today than they were in 1997, and are more likely to oppose any tax-raising measures Labour might consider to boost spending on public services or to allow for more investment in the economy.
All that said, the Conservative Party’s position feels as dire now as it was in 1997, and Labour’s relatively less strong position compared to 97 could prove an irrelevance in the end.
Britain’s smaller but emerging political parties are hoping to capitalise on this mess; not least Reform UK, the former Brexit Party about which there is constant talk of Nigel Farage’s possible return to the helm.
