Rishi Sunak has already claimed credit for the reduction of illegal Channel crossings in 2023, which is still the second-highest total since records began. But official forecasts for this year add further credence to the view that the drop was simply a “glitch” caused by bad weather.
Leaked Border Force documents contain projections of crossings rising to around 35,000 in 2024, up from 2023’s provisional figure of 29,437. The documents, seen by The Daily Telegraph, suggest that the upper projection for the year ahead of us is as high as 50,000, which would be a record high.
Sunak’s Conservative government described stopping the small-boat crossings as one of its five key priorities for 2023. Having failed to do this, Home Secretary James Cleverly has shifted the goalposts to make 2024 the ‘target’ year to “bring it down to zero.” It is telling that the prime minister’s spokesman has refused to back this line.
The projections are based on last year’s influx of migrants into Europe and on the fairly safe assumption that the British government will not deport any illegal entrants to Rwanda for asylum processing. Either that or there will be so few flights to the African nation that they have “no material deterrent effect.”
Sunak’s flagship migration policy, the ‘Rwanda Plan,’ has so far resulted in no deportations and has failed to deter crossings since, as those who visit the migrant camp in Calais, say, migrants view it as a “far-fetched threat” and believe “they’ll [n]ever be deported” there.
Officials also told the Telegraph that figures will be impacted by France’s failure to secure its external borders.
A source close to Cleverly added that projections, which turned out to be pessimistic last year, will be used to “plan and focus our attention on the best strategies for this year to ensure those scenarios do not come to pass, to keep driving down illegal migration and ultimately stop the boats.” However, it appears more and more unlikely that the Conservatives will have a whole year to test this claim.
