European families could pay up to €2,000 more for energy this year, as conflict in the Middle East drives up oil prices and exposes the continent’s continued reliance on fragile global supply routes.
The European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) estimates that the average increase in household energy bills across the European Union will reach €1,896 per year. Total annual spending for an average household would therefore rise from €3,792 to €5,688. In practice, energy would account for almost 12% of total household expenditure.
Spain would fare somewhat better than most countries. The projected increase there is €1,384 per year. Ireland, by contrast, is among the most exposed states, with an additional €2,646 per household. France would see increases of more than €2,500, while Luxembourg would approach €2,800.
Since the start of the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, Brent crude came close to $120 per barrel. The partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a crucial share of global oil and gas trade passes, pushed prices higher and revived a fear that Brussels had spent months trying to bury: that the 2022 energy crisis never really disappeared.
This time, however, the European Union enters it with less room to manoeuvre. Brussels insists there will be no immediate oil shortage and says it has “tools” to contain the impact. The Commission argues that the EU’s direct exposure to the Middle East is limited. Yet the bloc’s own figures tell a different story.
The European Union imports 40% of its jet fuel, 8.5% of its liquefied natural gas, and nearly 7% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz—shares that appear manageable until a crisis drives up the cost of every tanker, insurance contract, and alternative route.
The European Union is once again slow to respond, with action following rising costs.
European Commission spokesman Anna-Kaisa Itkonen admitted on Wednesday that “we should not fall into the illusion that the crisis will be short.” Yet Brussels still avoids speaking of an energy emergency. It prefers to rely on a future package of measures, strategic reserves and the belief that the market will eventually correct itself. It is the same logic that left Europe exposed after abruptly breaking with Russian gas without first building a stable alternative.
The consequences are already being felt beyond European institutions. In Ireland, farmers and transport workers have spent days protesting over rising fuel prices. Convoys have blocked roads and fuel depots across the country. Irish police no longer treat the demonstrations as ordinary protests. They now describe them as “blockades” of critical infrastructure.
The government in Dublin has gone so far as to call in the army to remove vehicles and reopen roads. Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin described the protests as “unacceptable” and accused demonstrators of paralysing the economy.
Ireland is one of the countries expected to suffer the largest increase in energy costs. Agricultural fuel, freight transport, and machinery depend almost entirely on diesel. Rising fuel prices feed through the entire chain: food, transport, fertilisers, and production.
Irish farmers may be the first sign of tensions that could spread across Europe if prices rise again. France is already reporting partial fuel shortages at some petrol stations. In Central Europe, governments such as Slovakia and Hungary have been warning for weeks that sanctions, attacks on energy infrastructure, and the closure of transport routes are pushing the continent towards a new crisis.
Brussels may speak of resilience. But it does not reduce a €2,000 energy bill.
