This Friday, February 28th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is meeting in Washington with his U.S. counterpart, Donald Trump, to sign an economic agreement that could redefine relations between both countries and alter the strategic balance in Europe.
The long-negotiated pact stipulates that Ukraine will cede 50% of the revenues from exploiting its natural resources—including critical minerals, oil, and gas—to a fund managed jointly with the United States. In return, Washington will commit to continuing its assistance to Kyiv, although specific security guarantees—a key issue for the Ukrainian government—have not yet been detailed.
“U.S. assistance cannot stop; it is crucial for us and for everyone in the world,” Zelensky stated before his trip, underscoring the importance of the meeting at the White House. For his part, Trump has insisted on the need for a practical agreement, stating that “the conflict in Ukraine must be resolved with pragmatism and agreements that benefit all parties.”
The meeting has implications that go beyond economics. Since his return to the White House, Trump has pursued a clear strategy: strengthening the U.S.’s ability to compete with China. Rare earth elements, essential for producing cutting-edge technology, defense, and renewable energy, are at the core of this strategy.
However, control over these resources in Ukraine is a complex issue. It is estimated that between 40% and 50% of the country’s critical mineral deposits are located in territories currently under Russian control, which means that any future exploitation would depend on the outcome of the conflict. Some analysts suggest that exploiting these minerals could become a key bargaining chip in negotiations between Washington and Moscow.
Meanwhile, European countries watch on without having much influence. The European Union, heavily dependent on critical raw material imports from China, could see this agreement as an opportunity to diversify its supply chain. Brussels has insisted on securing stable supply chains, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stating that “Europe must reduce its dependence on external actors and ensure its strategic autonomy in accessing key materials.”
This effort to strengthen supply chains began during her previous term, shortly after the start of the Ukraine war in 2022 and the approval of the first sanctions against Russia. Both von der Leyen and several former commissioners traveled worldwide, particularly to Latin America and Africa, seeking alternative avenues to fill the gap left by Russia.
Beyond the issue of resources, the outcome of the meeting will influence the EU’s stance on Ukraine. While the United Kingdom and France have expressed their continued support for Kyiv, some European countries have begun to question the level of military and economic assistance they should provide. Outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasized the importance of a coordinated effort this week: “Europe must remain united in its support for Ukraine, but it must also prepare for changing scenarios in global geopolitics.”
Other European leaders have stressed that Ukraine’s stability is essential for the continent’s security. Macron was adamant in this regard, stating on Thursday, 27th February, that “peace cannot be just a pause in the conflict, but a lasting security guarantee for Ukraine and all of Europe.”
For now, Washington holds the reins, pending what Moscow might secure once the U.S. makes its move. Europe’s position, though firm in its rhetoric, has yet to yield any concrete victories—even with China’s backing. Beijing is closely monitoring the situation, aware that a shift in Russia’s alignment toward the U.S. sphere of influence could threaten its dominance in the Indo-Pacific region.
