fiscal forecast | The European Conservative

Fiscal Forecast America: How a Debt Default Happens

Sven R. Larson May 17, 2023

Politicians are known for two things: they never do what they should, and they always do what they shouldn’t. First, they do not prevent a debt crisis, then they aggravate it.

Fiscal Forecast America: The Debt Limit Drama

Sven R. Larson May 10, 2023

Democrats and Republicans are bickering over the debt ceiling. They will reach an agreement before the June 1st “default” date, but it will only be a stopgap measure. At some point, Congress will face such high costs for its debt that not even the most optimistic investors can trust the U.S. Treasury any longer.

Fiscal Forecast Europe: ECB Silent on New Fiscal Crisis

Sven R. Larson May 4, 2023

While the stars are lining up for another fiscal crisis in Europe, the ECB’s chief economist fails to even mention the threat. Is the ECB ignorant on what is coming down the pike?

Fiscal Forecast America: Media Wrong on GDP Growth

Sven R. Larson May 3, 2023

The official story is that the U.S. economy grew by 1.1% in the first quarter. This number is heavily modified and tells us nothing. We have the real numbers.

Fiscal Forecast Europe: Signs of Stagflation

Sven R. Larson April 26, 2023

New data suggests an elevated risk for stagflation in Europe. Policymakers beware!

Fiscal Forecast America: Farewell to State Independence

Sven R. Larson April 26, 2023

America’s states are supposed to be sovereign jurisdictions. Yet when the federal government is their main source of revenue, how independent are they really?

Fiscal Forecast Europe: Financial Markets Bad for Tax Revenue

Sven R. Larson April 20, 2023

Financial markets are important to governments that need a lot of tax revenue to pay for their welfare states. The problem with taxes levied on financial markets is that they generate unstable revenue.

Fiscal Forecast Europe: ECB Will Soon Return to Money Printing

Sven R. Larson April 13, 2023

With a welfare state that dominates their budgets, European governments are exceedingly vulnerable to a recession. When tax revenue declines and entitlements force governments to spend more, the inevitable result is larger budget deficits. What will the ECB do in response to that?

Fiscal Forecast America: Update on Recession and Debt Crisis

Sven R. Larson April 12, 2023

If government size and employment rate had been the same in 2022 as they were in 2000, the cost of today’s government would have been $47,000 per employed person. That is a lot of money—until we do the same arithmetic with today’s government size and employment rate. Then the cost comes out to $59,700.

Tag: fiscal forecast

Fiscal Forecast America: How a Debt Default Happens

Fiscal Forecast America: The Debt Limit Drama

Fiscal Forecast Europe: ECB Silent on New Fiscal Crisis

Fiscal Forecast America: Media Wrong on GDP Growth

Fiscal Forecast Europe: Signs of Stagflation

Fiscal Forecast America: Farewell to State Independence

Fiscal Forecast Europe: Financial Markets Bad for Tax Revenue

Fiscal Forecast Europe: ECB Will Soon Return to Money Printing

Fiscal Forecast America: Update on Recession and Debt Crisis

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Summer 2024, Issue 31

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