The coming winter in Europe will bring a cost that goes far beyond sky-high gas prices. Clouds of political uncertainty and fear are gathering ahead of a foreboding season, and not without good reason. For most of Europe, the war in Ukraine has meant more than energy shortages. It has also come with a shocking rise in food prices and a refugee crisis of Ukrainians fleeing their war-torn homeland. An unsettled mood pervades all European society as war once again occurs on the old continent.
As all people do when faced with danger, Europeans have looked to their leaders for direction. What they have seen has not brought them comfort or relief. While pleased with their joint condemnation of Russia’s aggression and their willingness to back it up with sanctions, the consequences of such actions have begun to sink in for Europeans. Hearts have plummeted at realizing how intimately it would impact every man, woman, and child across the continent. The rise in fuel and food costs come at a time when Europe’s economy already offers little to smile about with inflation at ten percent and unemployment now at six percent. Incoming mass migration and the unthinkable possibilities of colder homes and offices due to rationing Russian-oriented energy are sobering indeed.
Not all European countries have been caught flat-footed. The most prominent example has been the central European nation of Hungary. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has pursued a deviation from the European Union’s collective policy of isolating Russia over its invasion of Ukraine by continuing the importation of Russian energy, earning the ire of Washington and Brussels. Today, Hungary will be dealing with domestic cutbacks and regulations in power consumption, but it now stands better prepared with higher energy reserves while the rest of Europe faces the specter of rationing. Orbán chose national interest and realpolitik over the collective will of Europe concerning Russian sanctions.
The contrast of reactions between Budapest and Brussels to the coming crises of this winter have been noticed by those who pay close attention to international affairs. When the weather turns cold and the snow falls, the reality between a home in Hungary and a home elsewhere in Europe, let’s say Germany, will be evident to all. While the European Union’s leaders put all effort into presenting a united condemnation of Russian aggression to be exercised at any cost, Hungary’s leadership considered the potential danger to Europe’s economy from leveling sanctions in the midst of a recession. The EU’s policy has been one of ideology while Hungary’s has been one based on national interest.
The concept of national self-interest has been demonized by the Brussels elite as an idea responsible for Europe’s history of wars and chaos. Peace and virtue, they seem to suggest, can only be achieved if nation states abandon their national interests. Furthermore, in times of crisis, a collective demonstration of force must be made, even when that demonstration is harmful to a nation’s self-interest. Hungary has decided to ditch Brussels-style virtue-signaling and face the ensuing accusations of being selfish in exchange for being able to provide peace, and relative economic and political stability for its own people. The citizens of the rest of Europe are starting to take notice.
Other nations are beginning to follow Hungary’s lead, with the recent election of Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s first female Prime Minister, being a prime example. Elected on the matters of rising energy prices, addressing mass migration, and promises to preserve local culture, many draw parallels between Ms. Meloni and Mr. Orbán. In both cases, the people have turned to leaders who have promised to focus on their own nation’s issues rather than blindly follow the will of the European collective in Brussels. Both leaders have faced accusations of being racist and bigoted, with observers questioning how people could even elect such leaders. The answer is that the people are mindful of their own survival and look to those who take responsibility for their own people first and present plans of protection rather than messages of virtue-signaling. Across the continent, conservative parties have begun to offer such messages in contrast to their political opponents who argue for staying the course on Russian sanctions, regardless of the cost. For them, a change of course is selfish at best, or supportive of Putin at worst.
The two approaches will soon be tested come winter, with voters across the continent leveling judgement after the snow melts and elections offer them a chance to speak. The potential harshness of this coming season of cold will force people to ask hard questions of how much they are willing to endure for the sake of trying to punish Russia for its actions in Ukraine. Even the impact of such sanctions has been questionable with Russia bypassing sanctions through smuggling and finding alternative customers in the east for its energy supplies to recover a measure of its financial losses.
But actual results are beside the point in Brussels’s calculations. The point is to demonstrate solidarity against Russian aggression, even if it hurts Europeans more than it hurts the Russian regime. Meanwhile Hungary has chosen to work with Russia on its payment conditions for Russian gas despite its actions, recognizing that Russian energy is the only source that can satisfy its needs for the winter. The EU has endangered its people for the sake of a virtuous image while Hungary has sacrificed a virtuous image for the sake of its people.
The state of the war in Ukraine will be the most telling of all. Should Russia’s aggression against Ukraine continue come springtime, people will question how effective Europe’s abstention from Russian energy really was and why they had to suffer so much during the winter. Moreover, Hungary’s stronger position energy-wise will have other Europeans asking why they can’t have such a government for themselves. Many have already begun to raise their voices, the recent protests in Prague being the most prominent demonstration. Across the continent, right-wing parties are starting to garner more support from nations. Spain offers the clearest example for coming elections in 2023, along with recent increases in influence for right-wing parties in Sweden and the Netherlands. More may follow in the coming years.
Europeans will survive the winter, but their mostly benign attitude towards the EU may not. Then it will be the EU-oriented governments’ turn to feel the same cold their people faced when they head to the ballot box.
A Winter of Discontent: The Coming Cold Season May Trigger a Spring of Political Change in European Elections
The coming winter in Europe will bring a cost that goes far beyond sky-high gas prices. Clouds of political uncertainty and fear are gathering ahead of a foreboding season, and not without good reason. For most of Europe, the war in Ukraine has meant more than energy shortages. It has also come with a shocking rise in food prices and a refugee crisis of Ukrainians fleeing their war-torn homeland. An unsettled mood pervades all European society as war once again occurs on the old continent.
As all people do when faced with danger, Europeans have looked to their leaders for direction. What they have seen has not brought them comfort or relief. While pleased with their joint condemnation of Russia’s aggression and their willingness to back it up with sanctions, the consequences of such actions have begun to sink in for Europeans. Hearts have plummeted at realizing how intimately it would impact every man, woman, and child across the continent. The rise in fuel and food costs come at a time when Europe’s economy already offers little to smile about with inflation at ten percent and unemployment now at six percent. Incoming mass migration and the unthinkable possibilities of colder homes and offices due to rationing Russian-oriented energy are sobering indeed.
Not all European countries have been caught flat-footed. The most prominent example has been the central European nation of Hungary. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has pursued a deviation from the European Union’s collective policy of isolating Russia over its invasion of Ukraine by continuing the importation of Russian energy, earning the ire of Washington and Brussels. Today, Hungary will be dealing with domestic cutbacks and regulations in power consumption, but it now stands better prepared with higher energy reserves while the rest of Europe faces the specter of rationing. Orbán chose national interest and realpolitik over the collective will of Europe concerning Russian sanctions.
The contrast of reactions between Budapest and Brussels to the coming crises of this winter have been noticed by those who pay close attention to international affairs. When the weather turns cold and the snow falls, the reality between a home in Hungary and a home elsewhere in Europe, let’s say Germany, will be evident to all. While the European Union’s leaders put all effort into presenting a united condemnation of Russian aggression to be exercised at any cost, Hungary’s leadership considered the potential danger to Europe’s economy from leveling sanctions in the midst of a recession. The EU’s policy has been one of ideology while Hungary’s has been one based on national interest.
The concept of national self-interest has been demonized by the Brussels elite as an idea responsible for Europe’s history of wars and chaos. Peace and virtue, they seem to suggest, can only be achieved if nation states abandon their national interests. Furthermore, in times of crisis, a collective demonstration of force must be made, even when that demonstration is harmful to a nation’s self-interest. Hungary has decided to ditch Brussels-style virtue-signaling and face the ensuing accusations of being selfish in exchange for being able to provide peace, and relative economic and political stability for its own people. The citizens of the rest of Europe are starting to take notice.
Other nations are beginning to follow Hungary’s lead, with the recent election of Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s first female Prime Minister, being a prime example. Elected on the matters of rising energy prices, addressing mass migration, and promises to preserve local culture, many draw parallels between Ms. Meloni and Mr. Orbán. In both cases, the people have turned to leaders who have promised to focus on their own nation’s issues rather than blindly follow the will of the European collective in Brussels. Both leaders have faced accusations of being racist and bigoted, with observers questioning how people could even elect such leaders. The answer is that the people are mindful of their own survival and look to those who take responsibility for their own people first and present plans of protection rather than messages of virtue-signaling. Across the continent, conservative parties have begun to offer such messages in contrast to their political opponents who argue for staying the course on Russian sanctions, regardless of the cost. For them, a change of course is selfish at best, or supportive of Putin at worst.
The two approaches will soon be tested come winter, with voters across the continent leveling judgement after the snow melts and elections offer them a chance to speak. The potential harshness of this coming season of cold will force people to ask hard questions of how much they are willing to endure for the sake of trying to punish Russia for its actions in Ukraine. Even the impact of such sanctions has been questionable with Russia bypassing sanctions through smuggling and finding alternative customers in the east for its energy supplies to recover a measure of its financial losses.
But actual results are beside the point in Brussels’s calculations. The point is to demonstrate solidarity against Russian aggression, even if it hurts Europeans more than it hurts the Russian regime. Meanwhile Hungary has chosen to work with Russia on its payment conditions for Russian gas despite its actions, recognizing that Russian energy is the only source that can satisfy its needs for the winter. The EU has endangered its people for the sake of a virtuous image while Hungary has sacrificed a virtuous image for the sake of its people.
The state of the war in Ukraine will be the most telling of all. Should Russia’s aggression against Ukraine continue come springtime, people will question how effective Europe’s abstention from Russian energy really was and why they had to suffer so much during the winter. Moreover, Hungary’s stronger position energy-wise will have other Europeans asking why they can’t have such a government for themselves. Many have already begun to raise their voices, the recent protests in Prague being the most prominent demonstration. Across the continent, right-wing parties are starting to garner more support from nations. Spain offers the clearest example for coming elections in 2023, along with recent increases in influence for right-wing parties in Sweden and the Netherlands. More may follow in the coming years.
Europeans will survive the winter, but their mostly benign attitude towards the EU may not. Then it will be the EU-oriented governments’ turn to feel the same cold their people faced when they head to the ballot box.
READ NEXT
Jaguar: All Virtue, No Vehicle
Mazan Affair: A Trial of Moral Misery
Milei Disrupts the Cosy Consensus at the G20