With Spain’s elections looming, several new parties are hoping to contribute to the breakdown of the country’s bipartisan hegemony.
This breakdown is not new, however, and has already fragmented the Left. Indeed, the Socialist party (PSOE)—by including Podemos, parties that feature former terrorists, and others in its currently-ruling coalition)—may have catalysed two opposite reactions: the initial rise of VOX (as voters punished the political establishment and tepid centre-right opposition), and that party’s relative subsequent under-performance, as voters are now prioritising ending the current administration by consolidating around the ‘safe’ centre-right PP.
Apart from VOX, whose position as the third largest party in the country and junior party in a future coalition with the PP appears likely (albeit the PP is clearly reluctant) a few more parties are worth mentioning.
To begin with, Ciudadanos, once a clear contender to becoming the third largest national party, has now definitively collapsed, its voters probably largely turning to the PP.
On the Left, we have Sumar, a mainstream leftist platform led by Yolanda Diaz, Minister of Labour and Social Economy and Second Deputy Prime Minister under the current government.
Yolanda is hoping to replace (in part by fusing with what remains of) Podemos, as well as, ultimately, the PSOE. Former Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias has expressed his wish for his nearly defunct party and Yolanda’s new project to present a single electoral list during the next elections, which it seems they will now do.
Despite their leader’s nominal ministerial title, Sumar’s talking points concern sexuality, gender identity, race, and standard UN-brand environmentalism. It is therefore no more than the latest re-packaging of the establishment Left’s general abandonment of the working class and pathologization of inherited, stable (national, religious) identities.
As for the other main contender to replace Podemos, Mas Pais, led by one of the former party’s co-founders, Iñigo Errejon, it has now more or less lost any pretensions to leadership on the Left, with its strong local brands, such as Mas Madrid, becoming allied with Sumar.
But there is another emergent force on the Left worth mentioning, having nothing to do with the postmodern, deconstructivist sensibilities of Podemos or Sumar: the Frente Obrero.
Its pillars are an old school defence of the working class, patriotism, opposition to mass migration and a rejection of ‘woke’ politics. The last point is predicated on understanding contemporary woke discourse as an elite project meant to distract from workers’ deteriorating material conditions and promote a global marketplace of atomized, narcissistic consumers.
In this, the Frente Obrero is close to VOX, defending the kind of politically transversal, Left-Right paradigm VOX should lean into more. Emphasising its desire to promote SMEs and family-owned businesses, and adopting a Chestertonian opposition to both state and global corporate economic preponderance would be enough for VOX to satisfy those centre-right voters committed to certain economically liberal policies. It need not lapse into invoking anglo-libertarian, free-market purist talking points that alienate voters who may now find the Frente Obrero more appealing. A Chesterton-like ‘distributism’ and emphasis on the commons would serve as an alternative to the mainstream, as well as a middle-way beyond the libertarianism of certain VOX-adjacent ideologues and the Bolshevism of Frente Obrero figures.
For its part, the Frente Obrero (which, for now, has novelty on its side) may be hurt by the fact that its leadership is mainly communist, and its leader, Roberto Vaquero, a defender of Stalin’s legacy. The party itself isn’t communist, and it is attracting people from across the political spectrum but, beyond a solid, viscerally powerful critique of the powers that be, its analysis and prescriptions remain under-developed.
The Frente Obrero considers itself a movement, with its political party serving as a means to build a certain social consciousness rather than representing a genuine bid to govern (which would not currently be viable). In this regard, it specifically asked for signatures in order to stand in Ceuta, Melilla, and the Canary Islands—Spanish territories bearing the brunt of migration upon which Morocco has irredentist pretensions. In this way, it can build its brand as a strongly anti-mass migration party unwilling to capitulate to Morocco’s hostile foreign policy. Its grassroots organising has been successful, and the party will stand in 51 of Spain’s 52 constituencies.
The presence of such a party might force VOX to compete for votes on its Left, recalibrating away from a certain ideological migration in the mainstream direction of the PP, or towards the false radicalism of economic libertarianism.
Finally, we may address the Caminamos Juntos party, founded by Macarena Olona, former prominent member of VOX. She led its campaign in Andalusia, which did not go well, losing to the PP, whereupon she may be said to have abandoned her post in order to strike out on her own, displaying a certain lack of militancy and discipline.
Her critique of her former party is that it is too radical, too ‘Lepenist,’ but it is unclear what her brand offers that a safe, PP, vote does not. The party’s name is a reference to the Santiago pilgrimage, in which context she announced its formation, albeit her public persona has not generally projected Catholic traditionalism. The weakness of the Caminamos Juntos brand was on full display during an event in which she debated Vaquero.
If a PP-VOX coalition emerges from the next elections, the degree to which the PP retains its establishment, pro-Agenda 2030 orientation and general disdain for VOX will affect how its voter base acts in the future, as PP voters are more conservative and patriotic than the party’s leadership.
Likewise, how VOX is able to stand its ground will determine how seriously voters take it going forward. Its talking points and ability to communicate these will also condition the rise of new, radical anti-migration parties like the Frente Obrero.
