Bosnia’s internationally appointed peace overseer, Christian Schmidt, stepped in to annul two decisions of the Serb-majority autonomous region on Saturday, July 1st, for violating the 1995 Dayton Agreement. In turn, Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik refused to acknowledge Schmidt’s authority, accused the other party of violating the agreement first, and announced his desire to organize a referendum on the country’s status by the end of the year.
The current controversy began after the National Assembly of one of Bosnia’s two autonomous regions, Republika Srpska, voted to suspend Bosnian Constitutional Court rulings and stop publishing the peace envoy’s decrees in the region’s official gazette—both of which are specified by the Dayton Agreement, which ended the first Yugoslav war in 1995.
According to Schmidt, these decisions not only challenge the peace agreement but “directly violate the constitutional order of Bosnia-Herzegovina,” the High Representative said during a Sarajevo press conference on Saturday, July 1st. He also announced a new amendment to make attacking state institutions a criminal offense, effective immediately.
Quick Dayton explainer
The Dayton Agreement ended four years of bloodshed in the Balkan country by splitting Bosnia into two regions: the Serb-dominated Republika Srpska in the north and the east, and the Bosniak-Croat Federation—modeled after the Swiss canton system—in the southwest.
The two parts are linked by a weak central government led by a council of three presidents—one for each national community—which is overseen by the High Representative or peace envoy appointed by the Steering Board of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC), made of nine countries, the European Commission and the EU Council’s Presidency.
According to the treaty, the High Representative has the authority to impose and revoke laws to uphold the Dayton agreement and prevent the hostilities from re-emerging, as well as to sack obstructing officials. Traditionally, the envoy comes from a European country, while his deputy is always American.
The institution that’s effectively in charge of the country will remain in place until certain conditions specified by the Dayton Agreement are met, one of which is “a positive assessment of the situation” by the PIC, meaning that Bosnia will become independent of Western supervision when the West says so.
The Serbian problem
Republika Srpska’s current president, Milorad Dodik—who is frequently accused of separatism and, lately, Russophilia—initiated the vote on the legitimacy of the Constitutional Court after the body decided to change the rules last month to allow for sessions and decisions without the presence of Serb judges.
As expected, Dodik did not bow to Schmidt’s annulment of the Serb parliament’s decisions, as Republika Srpska has not even recognized the envoy as the legitimate high representative, citing the lack of endorsement for his 2021 appointment from the UN Security Council. Back then, the two countries that prevented the Council from lending its legitimacy to Schmidt were Russia and China, with the former also being a member of the PIC Steering Board.
The problem is, he’s right: Annex 10 of the Dayton Agreement clearly says that every High Representative’s appointment must be “consistent with relevant UN Security Council Resolutions.” Without such a resolution, Schmidt’s position as the HR is easily questionable.
The road to secession?
“Republika Srpska will not accept a single decision of the fake high representative,” Dodik said following Saturday’s press conference by Schmidt and his decisions to revoke the problematic laws.
On Sunday, President Dodik issued a long statement, saying that he will not back down regarding the decisions, and announcing that Republika Srpska could organize a referendum “on its status and how to achieve it” by the end of the year—unclear if he meant a bid for increased autonomy, full independence, or even joining with Serbia.
“We do not want a conflict, and we see NATO’s role to ensure peace and, possibly, to secure an inter-entity demarcation line in the event of a politically heated situation,” the president said, adding that “Republika Srpska has no intention of changing its position.”
Furthermore, Dodik argued that it’s the West that is trying to shift the balance of power towards the Bosniak-Croat Federation, which constitutionally has four judges, while Republika Srpska has only two. Three other members of the Court are appointed from abroad by the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR).
“There can be no sovereignty if you’re a protectorate, if you’re a colony,” Dodik said, adding that
For everything that will happen in the coming days and months in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the responsibility should not be sought in the Republika Srpska, nor in the [Federation]. There are several embassies in Sarajevo … let them explain what is happening.
Truth be told, the possibility of Western peace-keeping troops in Bosnia is nothing new. When Schmidt gave his status report to the UN back in November 2021, he already said that the country was in imminent danger of breaking apart and that there was a “very real” prospect of renewed conflict. Therefore, he recommended that the organization review Bosnia’s international military presence, which currently only includes 700 EU peace-keepers, but no UN or NATO troops.
For its part, the United States’ Bosnian embassy welcomed Schmidt’s decisions, agreeing that they were needed to uphold the peace and the stability of the Dayton Agreement.
“The United States supports the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and multi-ethnic character of Bosnia and Herzegovina and will continue to hold individuals engaged in anti-Dayton behavior responsible for their actions,” the embassy tweeted.
