European leaders are having private reservations about integrating Ukraine and other candidate nations into the bloc, an insider scoop in the Financial Times reveals. Division runs so deep that some officials have even pondered the possibility of scrapping member states’ national vetoes entirely to smooth the accession process.
Presidents and prime ministers from the EU’s ten largest states gathered in Brussels for a private closed-door meeting at Hotel Amigo in late June, with some of those present expressing concerns about the arduous task of integrating Ukraine into the union despite their official pro-Ukrainian rhetoric.
In off-the-record interviews with the Financial Times, many diplomats stated their fears that the EU will be stretched beyond its political and economic capacity with Ukraine’s accession, a move that would radically upset the balance of power in an already divided bloc.
Ukraine applied for EU membership almost as soon as the current Russian invasion began. But many officials are privately downplaying the promises made by Commission President von der Leyen, even saying that there is no certainty that Ukraine will be allowed to join.
Officials reportedly lamented the need to change established EU treaties and risk domestic blowback, as well as the eye-watering cost of reconstructing Ukraine once the guns go silent.
EU agricultural policy would also need to be totally altered since Ukraine would become the largest Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) recipient in a move that would smash the traditional dominance of French farming interests on Brussels’ policymaking.
The political backlash seen in Eastern Europe caused by a glut of Ukrainian grain imports rerouted into Europe is seen by many leaders as a sign of things to come, when agrarian populism is already running high.
“Ukraine has not even entered the EU yet, and already it has damaged the single market,” retorted one sceptical diplomat, with the scrapping of national vetoes to allow Ukraine’s admittance seen as an outside possibility as well as a long-term goal for EU federalists but which is judged to be currently politically unfeasible.
If approved, Ukraine would become the fifth-largest EU member by its prewar population, and would shoot to the top of EU financial net recipients since living standards there are lower than in Bulgaria, the current poorest member in the bloc.
The French have allegedly offered creative solutions to the problem, including phased membership and partial regionalisation of the EU, to stave off some of the logistical headaches facing the EU with Ukraine and future candidate countries.
Following recent rule-of-law spats with Hungary and Poland, many progressives in the EU are also keen to have inbuilt guarantees that Ukraine will conform to liberal values if and when it joins the bloc.
“We saw such a backsliding in Poland and Hungary. And this means that we are now applying much stricter laws for the accession countries when it comes to the rule of law, checks and balances, system, independence of judiciary, anti-corruption measures and media,” described Transparency Commissioner Věra Jourová, with the long-running rule of law disputes expected to flare up again after the war.
Currently, eight countries are applying for EU membership (Turkey, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Albania, Moldova, Ukraine, and Bosnia), with the bloc moving swiftly to integrate the Western Balkans despite fears that Serbia would act as a Russian fifth column within EU decision-making.
EU accession requires unanimous approval of all member states at the European Council, as well as candidate countries, to be in total legislative alignment with EU standards, followed by a final treaty to be signed. According to one poll, 91% of Ukrainians back EU membership as well as a majority of EU citizens.
Similar to NATO, EU membership is seen as necessary to prevent future Russian acts of aggression, with Brussels and individual European nations already having delivered billions of euros in aid and military equipment since the confrontation with Moscow began.
