Republican Senator Mitch McConnell will step away from politics at the completion of this term, his seventh in the Senate. While he will be best remembered for serving as the Senate majority leader and shifting a Supreme Court pick from President Obama to President Trump, McConnell now struggles with two distinct challenges.
The first involves the normal vicissitudes of life—McConnell’s advancing age was evident when he froze during public appearances. While the 82-year-old deserves sympathy rather than ridicule, he is making the right choice by retiring. McConnell’s second challenge is unfamiliar to his generation of Republican leadership. It involves managing the integration of the populist Right into the Republican party, an especially difficult challenge when it comes to foreign policy.
In a recent speech on the Senate floor, McConnell sharply criticized Hungary’s diplomatic engagement with China. He argued that Hungary is subverting NATO, and he aimed criticism at American conservatives who admire Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. McConnell recognized the Orbán government’s embrace of traditional values, but downplayed them by arguing that American conservatives should only support countries that follow America’s geopolitical cues:
From across the Atlantic, there’s good reason to appreciate a European government that’s willing to question EU orthodoxy on things like short-sighted climate change policy or swim upstream in defense of conservative values.
But here in Washington, we’re obliged to evaluate whether allies and partners share our interests, not just our values. And whatever their pluck in dealings with EU bureaucrats in Brussels, Hungary’s leaders have cozied up to America’s greatest strategic adversaries.
These criticisms reveal a misunderstanding of Hungary’s political position in Europe and the political pressures driving its foreign policy. A fruitful foreign policy toward Hungary will be crafted only when American policymakers like Senator McConnell accurately understand these dynamics.
Hungary’s Relationship with Centers of Power
Hungary is, effectively, under economic sanctions imposed by the European Union (EU) and the Biden Administration. The European Commission is withholding billions of euros in COVID recovery and other funds from Hungary for alleged rule-of-law violations. These restrictions remain in place despite measures taken by the Orbán government that address the Commission’s rule-of-law concerns.
In 2022, the Biden Administration initiated the process to unilaterally withdraw from the U.S.-Hungary taxation treaty; and, as of 8 January 2023, the treaty is no longer in effect. Bilateral tax treaties facilitate international commerce by preventing companies operating in the two signatory countries from being fully taxed in both jurisdictions for the same economic activity. By withdrawing from the tax treaty, the Biden Administration disincentivizes international commerce between the U.S. and Hungary.
The U.S. State Department and the United States Agency for International Development provide support for Hungarian media and civil society groups that tend to oppose the Orbán government. David Pressman, the U.S. ambassador to Hungary, meddles in Hungarian politics to such an extent that Péter Szijjártó, the Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, referred to him as “the leader of the opposition.”
Taken together, it is reasonable to conclude that progressive elites want Hungarians to oust from government both Orbán and his political party, Fidesz. To achieve that goal, they are willing to engage in a variety of tactics including financial pressure and support for the political opposition. Therefore, it is worth considering why progressive elites in the EU and within the Biden Administration are so adamantly opposed to Orbán.
The answer boils down to the Orbán government’s positions on European federalism, immigration, and, especially, LGBTQ issues. Orbán promotes a sovereigntist approach that seeks to maintain substantial political authority at the national level while still supporting EU institutions. He wants Hungarians and the Hungarian political process to determine Hungary’s positions on immigration and marriage and family issues; and the Hungarian people oppose mass migration and support traditional values.
These political positions are antithetical to the progressive Left that instead champions globalism, open immigration policies (at least functionally), and LGBTQ values. This is why the Biden administration selected Pressman—a gay human-rights lawyer who is lionized by progressive media outlets—to be America’s ambassador to Hungary. And it is why Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, continues to withhold EU funds intended for Hungary. In a recent speech, she even stated that reasons for withholding the funds include the Orbán government’s position on immigration and LGBTQ issues.
EU and Biden administration allegations of Hungarian authoritarianism and rule-of-law violations should be understood primarily in this context. Recent academic research lends support to this assertion. Hungary’s democracy score would remain high if only objective measures were included. It is only when subjective measures are incorporated in its democracy score—measures that are likely coded by biased individuals and organizations—that Hungary’s democracy score significantly declines.
Western Political Pressure
McConnell needs to consider these circumstances when assessing the Orbán government’s foreign policy. Orbán and the Fidesz party’s foundational interests include securing Hungary’s border and protecting Hungary’s children from LGBTQ ideology. Because of this, progressives in the EU and the Biden administration defame the Orbán government as authoritarian and, effectively, encourage votes against it in every election. These progressives represent some of the same NATO allies that McConnell accuses Orbán of undermining.
In response to intense political and economic pressure from the progressive Left in Europe and the U.S., Orbán is seeking better relations and economic opportunities with China. He is hedging his bets in this increasingly multipolar world. Of course, Orbán’s is not the only European government pursuing this course of action. Many European countries maintain deep economic ties with China. In fact, in 2020 the EU signed the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment over the incoming Biden Administration’s objections. It was not until reports emerged documenting China’s human rights violations in Xinjiang province that political pressure forced EU leaders to scupper the deal.
McConnell should cultivate a sense of strategic empathy and realize that Hungary has its own interests—which include the same conservative values that McConnell supports in the U.S.—and that Western progressives are subverting them. He errs by assuming that Hungary can and should divorce its domestic interests and values from its foreign policy commitments.
More broadly, Republican leadership should encourage the Biden administration and the European Commission to reduce their political pressure on Hungary. They should champion deeper economic ties between the U.S. and Hungary and seek to reestablish a tax treaty between the two countries. Instead of joining the chorus of progressive voices denigrating the Orbán government, Republicans should lead the U.S. in courting it. Then perhaps, Orbán would envision Hungary’s foreign policy interests congruently with those of the U.S.
