After being sidelined by Angela Merkel in 2000, and retired from politics for more than twenty years, Friedrich Merz has resurrected first as CDU leader and now as Germany’s potential next chancellor.
While he established himself as a successful businessman serving on corporate boards and working for BlackRock, his liberal economic discourse and apparent firmness on immigration and security issues, has earned him both admirers and detractors.
His return in 2018, following Merkel’s announcement that she does not intend to run again, was not welcomed by the party establishment. He was labeled arrogant, vengeful, and driven solely by a desire to settle scores with the former chancellor, since it was Merkel who stripped him of his leadership role in the CDU’s parliamentary group two decades ago. Now, on the eve of crucial elections, Merz stands at a crossroads that will define Germany’s future, and the key issue he will need to resolve is balancing CDU’s stance towards the AfD and the expectations of his own voters.
While other conservative leaders have outright rejected the national conservative AfD , Merz has shown willingness to take a more pragmatic approach. His recent attempt to introduce a parliamentary motion against immigration with indirect support from the AfD sparked a political storm. Angela Merkel broke her self-imposed silence to harshly criticize him, which in turn was leveraged by the Social Democrats and Greens to accuse him of breaking a political taboo. However, there are a couple of things to keep in mind when evaluating Merz’s position not just on AfD but on the driving issues he vowed to have a tough stance on, such as migration, energy and economy.
Can Merz magically reform the CDU after a decade of mismanagement of Germany’s economy and the introduction of the so-called Willkommenskultur under Merkel that has led to the drastic reshaping of Western European societies, or will the CDU reform Merz who inherited party that the Left will always have leverage over?
In particular, it’s Angela Merkel’s shadow that still looms over the CDU. The former chancellor remains a reference point for many in the party, and her refusal to mend fences with Merz has complicated the situation for the current CDU leader.
But Merz cannot afford to remain bogged down in internal disputes. His challenge is to project the image of a renewed CDU capable of offering a real alternative to the progressive drift that has weakened Germany. He campaigned on a tax cuts platform, €50 billion reduction in social spending, and he also pledged to implement stricter immigration policies, and “restore national pride.” Will he indeed take these measures with the decisiveness the situation demands or will he ultimately yield to pressure from the left-leaning factions within his party and globalist elites? Well, it remains to be seen but we have all the reasons to be skeptical.
In short, Merz faces so far the biggest challenge of his career. If he forms a government, his policies must navigate between the need to differentiate it from the previous coalition and the pressure to distance himself from AfD. His room for maneuver is narrow: excessive moderation could alienate his conservative electorate, while an overt shift to the right could shut the door to key alliances. Based on the latest projections, however, it seems his need for the Left will gain priority—meaning the voters’ desire for real change will be ignored once again.
