Sunday’s German elections showed the likely future direction of European politics. An uncertain future in which the old right and left parties of the establishment are struggling to hold their ground, and hold onto power, in the face of a growing populist revolt.
And if the establishment forces cannot contain the revolt in Germany, the powerful heart of the European Union, what chance will they have elsewhere?
When it became clear that his party had topped the polls, Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Germany’s next chancellor, tried to declare an “historic” victory. The results did indeed make history, though not in the way that Merz claimed.
The CDU, with its ally the Christian Social Union (CSU), won just 28.5% of the vote—the Christian Democrats’ second-worst result in a modern general election, up only 4% on its lowest-ever result last time. The ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) under Olaf Scholz received 16.4% of the vote—its worst-ever result.
The truly history-making positive results were for the right-wing populist party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) which came second after doubling its share of the vote to 20.8%. The Left opposition party also doubled its vote, to a more modest 8.8%. What’s more, this breakthrough was achieved in an election with an historically high turnout of more than 80%, confirming voters’ enthusiasm for something different.
The German political establishment has spent years crying “Nazi” at the AfD, and doing all in its power to isolate, censor and even ban the upstart party. Yet it could not stop more than 10 million German citizens voting AfD. The national-populist party defied all the media caricatures, winning support not only in its strongholds in the former Communist east but also in the more prosperous west; winning votes not just from bitter, older Germans, but also from young people who want a better future.
How did Merz, Scholz, and the rest of the elitists respond to the AfD’s electoral success? By swearing that they would never cooperate with the “far-right” and blaming “foreign interference” for causing the rise of the populists, specifically the pro-AfD tweets from X boss and Trump ally Elon Musk.
The bad news for the Berlin elites is that those millions of Germans did not choose to vote AfD because a U.S. tech titan told them to. Contrary to what their rulers apparently believe, ordinary Germans and other Europeans are not an ignorant herd to be commanded by an online pied piper.
The real issue was not Musk, but migration; not online “disinformation,” but the real-world truth about the damage the EU’s disastrous Net Zero religion has inflicted on German industry and agriculture. They decided for themselves that the old Germany is not working.
No amount of bluster and Musk-blaming can disguise the historic crisis of the German political centre. In 1990, the first all-German elections after reunification, the CDU/CSU won with 44.3% and the SPD came second with 37%. Now the twin powers of German politics can barely muster 44% between them.
More recently, in 2013, Angela Merkel’s CDU could still command 41.5% of the vote. But that election was shortly before Germany’s globalist queen opened its borders to mass migration from Muslim-majority countries, and opened the way for a national sovereigntist insurgency.
Germans have voted for change. Yet they are most likely to get more of the same, via another ‘Grand Coalition’ of the two old parties. A CDU-SPD coalition, possibly with the inclusion of the Greens, would be a government that nobody intentionally voted for. Let’s be clear: in shunning the AfD and clinging to the centre, Merz is not “betraying” conservatism. He is showing the CDU’s true colours, as part of the old order, not a serious player in forging something new.
Germany is the latest frontline in the battle between Two Europes: the official Europe of the Brussels elites and their allies, and the real one where millions of Europeans live, work, and suffer the consequences of their policies. It is a battle that has seen the rise of national-populist movements across the continent.
The political and media elites have sought to make populism a dirty word. We should not be afraid of what they call us. The populist surge is a democratic revolt of those who have had enough and want to put the demos—the people—back into democracy. As MCC Brussels director Frank Furedi has observed, populism rejects not just those in power but also the elite values they espouse—their attempts to impose everything from open borders and Net Zero to trans ideology on Europe’s traditional way of life.
The populist revolt is reshaping European politics. It is potentially on a par with Europe’s “People’s Spring” or “Spring of Nations” in 1848, when national democratic revolutions brought major changes such as the abolition of serfdom in Hungary. Writing before last year’s elections to the European Parliament, I observed that, “At the time of the People’s Spring of 1848, Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels wrote their infamous Communist Manifesto, the opening of which captured the fears of the ancien régime:
‘A spectre is haunting Europe—the spectre of communism. All the powers of old Europe have entered into a holy alliance to exorcise this spectre: pope and tsar, [Austrian imperial statesman] Metternich and [French prime minister] Guizot, French radicals and German police-spies.’”
“If we were to write a revolutionary manifesto today,” I went on, “it might begin by capturing the fears of the left-liberal elites in response to the new Spring of Nations:
‘A spectre is haunting Europe—the spectre of populism. All the powers of the old EU have entered into an unholy alliance to exorcise this spectre: climate pope and Commission president, Chancellor Scholz and President Macron, French Islamo-leftists and German thoughtpolice.’”
The electoral success of the despised AfD confirms that the terrifying spectre of populism is haunting the EU elites even more powerfully today—and swapping Chancellor Merz for Scholz is not going to banish it. Merz has sworn to make a new Europe that is “independent” from the US. We need a new Europe of nations that are independent from the failed old EU elites.
The Spectre of Populism Is Haunting the EU
Supporters of the CDU follow an election night TV talk show following the general elections in Berlin on February 23, 2025; on the screen co-leader of Alternative for Germany (AfD) Alice Weidel.
Photo: INA FASSBENDER / AFP
Sunday’s German elections showed the likely future direction of European politics. An uncertain future in which the old right and left parties of the establishment are struggling to hold their ground, and hold onto power, in the face of a growing populist revolt.
And if the establishment forces cannot contain the revolt in Germany, the powerful heart of the European Union, what chance will they have elsewhere?
When it became clear that his party had topped the polls, Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Germany’s next chancellor, tried to declare an “historic” victory. The results did indeed make history, though not in the way that Merz claimed.
The CDU, with its ally the Christian Social Union (CSU), won just 28.5% of the vote—the Christian Democrats’ second-worst result in a modern general election, up only 4% on its lowest-ever result last time. The ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) under Olaf Scholz received 16.4% of the vote—its worst-ever result.
The truly history-making positive results were for the right-wing populist party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) which came second after doubling its share of the vote to 20.8%. The Left opposition party also doubled its vote, to a more modest 8.8%. What’s more, this breakthrough was achieved in an election with an historically high turnout of more than 80%, confirming voters’ enthusiasm for something different.
The German political establishment has spent years crying “Nazi” at the AfD, and doing all in its power to isolate, censor and even ban the upstart party. Yet it could not stop more than 10 million German citizens voting AfD. The national-populist party defied all the media caricatures, winning support not only in its strongholds in the former Communist east but also in the more prosperous west; winning votes not just from bitter, older Germans, but also from young people who want a better future.
How did Merz, Scholz, and the rest of the elitists respond to the AfD’s electoral success? By swearing that they would never cooperate with the “far-right” and blaming “foreign interference” for causing the rise of the populists, specifically the pro-AfD tweets from X boss and Trump ally Elon Musk.
The bad news for the Berlin elites is that those millions of Germans did not choose to vote AfD because a U.S. tech titan told them to. Contrary to what their rulers apparently believe, ordinary Germans and other Europeans are not an ignorant herd to be commanded by an online pied piper.
The real issue was not Musk, but migration; not online “disinformation,” but the real-world truth about the damage the EU’s disastrous Net Zero religion has inflicted on German industry and agriculture. They decided for themselves that the old Germany is not working.
No amount of bluster and Musk-blaming can disguise the historic crisis of the German political centre. In 1990, the first all-German elections after reunification, the CDU/CSU won with 44.3% and the SPD came second with 37%. Now the twin powers of German politics can barely muster 44% between them.
More recently, in 2013, Angela Merkel’s CDU could still command 41.5% of the vote. But that election was shortly before Germany’s globalist queen opened its borders to mass migration from Muslim-majority countries, and opened the way for a national sovereigntist insurgency.
Germans have voted for change. Yet they are most likely to get more of the same, via another ‘Grand Coalition’ of the two old parties. A CDU-SPD coalition, possibly with the inclusion of the Greens, would be a government that nobody intentionally voted for. Let’s be clear: in shunning the AfD and clinging to the centre, Merz is not “betraying” conservatism. He is showing the CDU’s true colours, as part of the old order, not a serious player in forging something new.
Germany is the latest frontline in the battle between Two Europes: the official Europe of the Brussels elites and their allies, and the real one where millions of Europeans live, work, and suffer the consequences of their policies. It is a battle that has seen the rise of national-populist movements across the continent.
The political and media elites have sought to make populism a dirty word. We should not be afraid of what they call us. The populist surge is a democratic revolt of those who have had enough and want to put the demos—the people—back into democracy. As MCC Brussels director Frank Furedi has observed, populism rejects not just those in power but also the elite values they espouse—their attempts to impose everything from open borders and Net Zero to trans ideology on Europe’s traditional way of life.
The populist revolt is reshaping European politics. It is potentially on a par with Europe’s “People’s Spring” or “Spring of Nations” in 1848, when national democratic revolutions brought major changes such as the abolition of serfdom in Hungary. Writing before last year’s elections to the European Parliament, I observed that, “At the time of the People’s Spring of 1848, Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels wrote their infamous Communist Manifesto, the opening of which captured the fears of the ancien régime:
“If we were to write a revolutionary manifesto today,” I went on, “it might begin by capturing the fears of the left-liberal elites in response to the new Spring of Nations:
The electoral success of the despised AfD confirms that the terrifying spectre of populism is haunting the EU elites even more powerfully today—and swapping Chancellor Merz for Scholz is not going to banish it. Merz has sworn to make a new Europe that is “independent” from the US. We need a new Europe of nations that are independent from the failed old EU elites.
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