Germany’s Southern Election Test

Over the coming weeks, more than 20 million voters in southern Germany will head to the polls to elect state parliaments or local governments. The most important contests are the state elections in Baden-Württemberg on March 8 and in Rhineland-Palatinate on March 22. Polls suggest that the AfD could stabilise around 20% even in these southwestern states, while the party is also expected to achieve double-digit results in Bavaria’s local elections.

Yet the decisive dynamic of these elections lies not simply in the rise of the AfD. Instead, they reveal the familiar effect of the cordon sanitaire: the stronger the AfD becomes, the more the parties of the political Left tend to benefit.

What we are witnessing is the transformation of the German party system into a two-bloc structure, now evident even in the country’s economic heartland.

The reason lies less in the strength of the Social Democrats or the Greens than in the strategic position of the Christian Democrats. With its rigid firewall against the AfD, the CDU excludes any cooperation with the party. The result is a recurring pattern: centre-right majorities may exist on paper yet remain powerless. Unless the CDU/CSU acts, their decline may even accelerate.

The AfD becomes a nationwide party

For years, the AfD was widely seen as a predominantly East German phenomenon. Its successes there were often interpreted as the product of regional frustrations and the legacy of post-communism. That interpretation is increasingly untenable.

The AfD now achieves stable double-digit results in former West Germany as well. The upcoming elections in the south will take place in some of the country’s most prosperous regions, and in both Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, the party polls around 20%. The AfD is no longer marginal but a structural component of the German party system nationwide.

This development is particularly striking in Baden-Württemberg. For decades, the state was considered a bastion of stable bourgeois politics, defined by economic success and CDU dominance. The Greens’ control of the state government since 2011 may appear to be a historic rupture. The regional Greens succeeded by imitating the CDU’s traditional formula: embedding themselves in the state’s civil society networks and presenting themselves as pragmatic managers of stability. Not surprisingly, this moderate course often provokes resistance within the national party. Yet the fact that a party to the right of the Christian Democrats can now command one-fifth of the electorate signals a profound shift in political loyalties.

Similar trends appear at the municipal level. In Bavaria’s upcoming local elections, observers expect the AfD to surpass 20% in many rural and industrial regions. If confirmed, this would demonstrate the party’s ability to poach in the CSU’s heartlands. This is notable because local elections are usually personality-driven contests, and the AfD often fields weak candidates in large parts of the state. In many municipalities, the party has struggled to even nominate full lists.

Despite these shortcomings, the broader picture is clear: the AfD has become a nationwide force. It is no longer merely a protest vehicle but the nucleus of a new political camp to the right of the Christian Democrats, steadily consolidating.

The strategic dead end of the Union

This development places the CDU/CSU in an increasingly difficult position.

On the one hand, they continue to lose voters to the AfD, which now presents itself as a credible party of the Right. On the other hand, the CDU excludes cooperation with it, placing itself in a growing political dependency on the Social Democrats, the Greens, and, increasingly, even Die Linke.

In southern Germany, a narrow majority to the right of the political centre would exist if the CDU and AfD were combined. But since cooperation between them is ruled out, that majority remains politically meaningless. The CDU cannot translate it into government power or capture the important offices of the state premier. The result is a structural distortion: conservative voters are numerous, yet exert little influence on government formation or policy direction.

The CDU/CSU thus finds itself trapped between two pressures. On one side stands the AfD, steadily attracting voters from the conservative camp as CDU/CSU policies are diluted by left-leaning coalition partners. On the other hand, the cordon sanitaire forces the CDU to orient itself increasingly toward the political Left. The Union’s room for manoeuvre is shrinking day by day.

Tactical voting strengthens the incumbents

This dynamic may become especially visible in the upcoming state elections.

In Baden-Württemberg, the CDU currently polls at 27%. While this still makes it the strongest party, its lead is narrow. The Greens, polling at 24%, have nominated the experienced and popular politician Cem Özdemir as their candidate for minister-president.

For many left-wing voters, the tactical logic is straightforward. Anyone determined to prevent a CDU government has an incentive to support the most viable left-wing party. In this case, the Greens are that party, as voters of smaller parties could easily prevent a CDU premiership by rallying behind Özdemir.

A similar mechanism appears in Rhineland-Palatinate. There, the main beneficiary is the SPD under Minister-President Alexander Schweitzer. Polls place the CDU at 28% and the SPD close behind at 27%. Voters of the Greens or far-left Die Linke therefore have an incentive to vote strategically for the SPD to prevent a CDU victory. The stronger the AfD performs, the stronger this dynamic becomes.

The cordon sanitaire is thus producing an emerging two-bloc system. On one side stands the CDU, which must rely on the SPD, the Greens, and sometimes even Die Linke to govern. Because it depends on these partners, it cannot move too far to the right and must accept that tactical voting by these parties may block its ambitions. On the other side stands the AfD, which benefits from a CDU forced to the left. Conservative politics are increasingly becoming the AfD’s domain. In this sense, the firewall paradoxically strengthens the very party it was meant to contain, while weakening the Christian Democrats.

A difficult signal for Berlin

This emerging two-bloc system carries significant consequences for national politics.

For Chancellor Friedrich Merz, weak results for the CDU in the southwest would represent a political setback, particularly if the party fails to capture the state premierships. Even without major losses, a combination of strong AfD results and stable centre-left governments would be widely interpreted as a strategic defeat.

The Bavarian local elections may also send troubling signals for the CSU. Should the AfD begin achieving consistent double-digit results, the CSU’s long-standing dominance of the conservative camp would gradually erode. Hundreds of AfD representatives in municipal councils could lay the foundations for durable party structures in southern Germany.

For both the CDU and the CSU, governing is part of their political DNA. If Friedrich Merz can guarantee access to power, he can rely on his party’s loyalty.

But if the emerging two-bloc system continues to reshape German politics, Merz will face growing scrutiny. With the CDU’s positions ever diluting while the AfD rides an ever-stronger wave of support, and key elections lost to an otherwise struggling SPD and Greens, the strategic basis of his leadership will come into question.

This pressure will intensify later this year, when several eastern German states hold elections in which the AfD polls roughly twice as strongly as in the west and openly seeks the office of minister-president. At that point, the CDU may face a stark choice: continue its current strategy or resort to the last instrument of the old system and formally enter governing coalitions that include Die Linke.