Following the vote of no confidence against François Bayrou, which was passed by a large majority on Monday, September 8th, France once again finds itself without a government. This is the third time in a year that President Macron has been faced with the now almost impossible task of finding a prime minister who is not likely to be overthrown at the first opportunity by opposition MPs. The Élysée Palace has promised that a new head of government will be appointed “in the coming days,” but the equation remains as unsolvable as ever.
The outcome of the vote of confidence was more than predictable, and François Bayrou, appointed prime minister in December just after the overthrow of his predecessor, Michel Barnier, had no illusions about his longevity. His institutional choice—the vote of confidence—was a way for him to leave with panache, at a time of his choosing.
While some commentators speak of a ‘regime crisis,’ the source of the problems in which France has been mired for several months now must be sought elsewhere. The person responsible is, above all, Emmanuel Macron himself. Elected by default after a non-existent campaign in 2022, he plunged the country into chaos with his decision to dissolve the National Assembly in June 2024. The legislative elections were dominated by an obsession with the ‘Republican front,’ which prevented the emergence of a true majority by blocking the path of the Rassemblement National, France’s leading party. This is the first time in the Fifth Republic that two successive governments have been overthrown. The 1958 constitution was designed by General de Gaulle precisely to avoid this scenario, which was common under the Third and Fourth Republics. History repeats itself, for the worse.
Given the division of the Assembly into three irreconcilable and minority blocs, the choice of a prime minister will once again be a headache. Who to appoint after François Bayrou? One option seems to be favoured within the central bloc: a figure who belongs to the common base, which brings together the centrists allied with Les Républicains, and who is able to negotiate a non-censure pact with the socialists.
The problem is that this configuration also guarantees immobility by choosing policies that are the lowest common denominator among the components of this alliance. It is also the configuration that fuels the exasperation of many French people, who feel they have been stuck for years with the same impotent politicians at the helm.
Another option is also on the table: the appointment of a non-party member, such as Michel Barnier, who is likely to be more widely accepted. The choice of such a prime minister seems like a pipe dream: everyone is talking about it, but no one has ever seen it happen.
The timing is hardly conducive to a mature and sensible decision. The ‘Bloquons tout’ social movement, announced for Wednesday, September 10th, is putting pressure on the executive branch—which Macron hates above all else. Those around him are under no illusions. “I have no idea about the timing, but it’s always the same: it has to happen quickly and it takes days,” a close associate of former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal explained to France Info.
Macron has resolutely ruled out the possibility of dissolution, but in doing so, he is preventing himself from breaking the deadlock he himself created. The situation in September 2025 is even more tense than in July 2024. The Socialists no longer intend to play the role of conciliators and dream of regaining power. MPs and party officials are taking turns in the media to convey the message that they are “ready” and that it is time to “try the Left”—as if France had not already paid the price for decades of socialist governments.
For the RN, the time for appeasement and delay is also over. Marine Le Pen’s party is likely to censor Bayrou’s successor from the outset in order to force the president to call early parliamentary elections. Dissolution is not “an option, but an obligation” for Macron, Le Pen reminded the Assembly on Monday. Macron hopes to avoid it now but may be forced to do so in a few weeks’ time–when yet another prime minister has been wasted and publicly executed.
There is still a little over a year and a half to go before the next presidential elections. This period is already shaping up to be a long and laborious end to Macron’s reign. Prime ministers are likely to come and go, politics will be conducted without ambition, and the French people’s anger and contempt for their political class will only grow—until it explodes?
