Greece’s Ruling Party’s 2027 Election Win Hinges on Solving Migrant Crisis

From an unemployment rate of 28% in 2015 to 8.5% today, regaining investment status in 2023, experiencing higher-than-EU-average GDP growth, and achieving debt reduction at an unprecedented pace, Greece has truly bounced back from the economic crisis that gripped the country in the 2010s. Yet, one looming issue from that dark decade could unravel the ruling New Democracy government in the 2027 election: illegal migration.

Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis was elected in 2019, promising to improve the economy and address the migration crisis, following the failures of the Coalition of the Radical Left–Progressive Alliance (SYRIZA), which was elected in the two national elections that took place in 2015, the peak of the economic and migrant crises. 

Today, however, Mitsotakis is increasingly marred by his failures to deal with illegal immigration. 

Although the COVID-19 restrictions and border measures led to only 9,000 illegal arrivals in 2021, there was a 111% increase the following year, with 19,000 illegal entries. There was another explosion in 2023, with a 153% increase, accounting for 48,000 migrants. Figures for 2025 are not yet complete, but they are on course to reach about 55,000.

In more notorious cases from this year, in June, over 600 migrants crammed onto two wooden fishing boats and entered Greece illegally, while in July, nearly 2,000 migrants arrived on Crete over two days, surpassing previous records for the island. More recently, on December 19, 545 migrants illegally entered Greece from North Africa.

In 2014-15, SYRIZA’s Alexis Tsipras was seen as the symbol of change, promising at rallies to tear up the economic bailout program, end austerity, and threaten Grexit. Once in office, the European Union humiliated him into imposing capital controls on banks, signing an €89 billion bailout, backtracking on Grexit threats, and enforcing further austerity measures—all while the Greek economy shrank and unemployment rose to over a quarter of the workforce.

Illegal migration was nearly a non-issue in the January 2015 elections, as the focus was on the ongoing economic crisis and bailout negotiations. However, the situation had changed dramatically by the September 2015 election, with over 860,000 illegal immigrants arriving on the Greek islands by sea or overland from Turkey by the end of the year. There were more than 177,000 illegal crossings in 2016 and over 150,000 between 2017 and 2019, leading to Athens having no-go zones for women at night and a surge in crime in the peaceful islands and rural areas of the Greek-Turkish border.

With little improvement to the economy and migrant crime soaring in Greece, the cosmopolitan, multilingual, and Harvard-educated Mitsotakis won the 2019 election by promising to restore “normalcy” to the Greek economy and a “firm but fair” migration policy, contrasting SYRIZA’s “humanitarian approach.” 

While satisfying New Democracy’s base by promising free-market policies, the expressed intention to deviate from the current migrant policy appeased much of the right-wing and made Mitsotakis a unifying figure to defeat SYRIZA. He won the 2019 election in a landslide, securing a single-party majority government, which he maintained in the June 2023 election after delivering on promises to improve the economy.

Despite these victories, the latest election forecast predicts New Democracy at 28.5%, followed by the center-left PASOK-KINAL at 12.5%, the left-wing populist Course of Freedom at 11.8%, the right-wing Greek Solution at 8.7%, and the once-governing SYRIZA dropping to 8.5%. 

Although New Democracy has appeased its traditional base, it is losing right-wing voters who are dissatisfied with the rising number of illegal migrants, the slow deportation process, and crimes committed by migrants from Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Albania, and Turkey, among other countries. 

Dr. Apostolos Pistolas, PhD in Voting Behavior, told europeanconservative.com that New Democracy’s declining support among right-wing voters goes beyond the migration issue and is also due to a series of political decisions that included, “up until Donald Trump’s election, appearing to advance a Democratic-style agenda in Greece, which further eroded trust among conservatives.”

“This erosion happened step by step. One key factor was the appointment of close advisors who had previously been associated with PASOK,” he explained. “[Another] major breaking point was the legalization of same-sex marriage and the manner in which the government handled it. Since then, conservative voters have become distant from the government and now view the prime minister with suspicion.”

The academic highlighted that “another significant move that alienated conservative voters was the adoption of a softer immigration policy following the Pylos incident,” a shipwreck in June 2023 in international waters near the Greek coast that left up to 500 dead, including 209 Pakistanis.

“Following the Pylos incident, New Democracy adopted a relatively lenient migration policy. Greece now ranks among the top countries in approving asylum applications, which has significantly increased dissatisfaction among conservative voters. Recently, the new migration minister has taken steps to tighten the policy. However, rebuilding broken trust is extremely difficult and would require bold, decisive actions,” Dr. Pistolas said.

He concluded by saying Greek voters have a “strong demand for stricter migration policies and law and order.”

According to data presented to parliament in November, Greek prisons have exceeded capacity, with a cell occupancy rate of 120.12%, while 51% of inmates are foreigners. Of the 6,540 foreigners in Greek prisons, 1,515 are Albanian, 507 are Turkish, 497 are Pakistani, 457 are Syrian, and 401 are Afghan.

Dr. Marie-Athena Papathanasiou, an international lawyer who observes the legal aspects of migration to Greece, told europeanconservative.com, “The problem is that after release from prison, few are deported.”

She explained that the trafficking of tens of thousands has continued in 2025 despite the recent law changes because asylum is being “exploited and distorted to cover up illegal migration.”

“Economic migrants are not refugees,” Papathanasiou asserted. “The law stipulates the deportation of illegals. When they give asylum, the numbers are still unsustainable and a real threat.”

Sensing that right-wing voters are being lost due to continued illegal arrivals, Mitsotakis appointed Makis Voridis as migration minister in March 2025, replacing Dimitris Kairidis of New Democracy’s center-right faction. Voridis was the secretary general of the youth wing of a right-wing political party founded by the jailed former dictator of Greece, was famously photographed wielding an axe during clashes with left-wing students at the Athens Law School in 1985, and in 1994 founded the Hellenic Front party, whose motto was “Red Card to Illegal Immigrants.” 

The message from Mitsotakis was clear: the government would adopt a much stricter stance on migration. However, Voridis was swiftly replaced by Thanos Plevris in June 2025 after the European Public Prosecutor and a Greek parliamentary committee launched investigations into his alleged role in a corruption scheme.

Appointing Plevris was another signal from Mitsotakis to right-wing voters that he would address the migrant crisis. Plevris was first elected to Parliament with the Popular Orthodox Rally in the 2007 election and previously said illegal immigrants should be denied access to basic needs like food, water, and healthcare, and that conditions in Greece should make “hell seem like heaven” to discourage further arrivals. 

The successive appointments of Voridis and Plevris show that Mitsotakis understands that holding a single-party majority in the next election depends on resolving the migrant crisis. Otherwise, New Democracy may be forced to form a coalition, something Mitsotakis has repeatedly said he wants to avoid. 

Yet, even forming a coalition could prove problematic. 

Speaking with europeanconservative.com, Emmanouil Fragkos, Member of the European Parliament for Greek Solution, said, “We are not in politics to join any coalition but to govern Greece.”

“It seems that the political system is changing. Greek Solution appears to be robust. This is because we have a governmental program, and the people realize this,” he said.

Commenting on New Democracy’s declining popularity, the MEP said, “Right-wing voters are known not to shift politically easily,” but Mitsotakis “does everything possible to alienate them.”

After highlighting challenges from Turkey and left-wing NGOs to “target Greece politically,” Fragkos pointed with “envy” to Hungary’s and Poland’s “smooth handling” of the migration issue.

“New Democracy, which increasingly resembles the Democrats under Biden or D66, repeats the unspeakably idiotic phrase that ‘migration influx will resolve the demographic problem.’ We say, ‘A Greece without Greeks has nothing to do with us. It is not Greece’,” he added.

As New Democracy’s popularity declines, Greek Solution, which secured 4.44% of the vote in the June 2023 election, now polls at 8.7%. Other minor right-wing parties are also gaining ground. Although Greek Solution aims to govern as a single-party majority and promises to address the migrant crisis, the appeal of forming a coalition in the next election may be too tempting to resist. At the same time, with New Democracy’s support waning, Mitsotakis might have no choice but to form a coalition unless there are rapid changes in Greece’s debilitating migrant situation.