The conservative bloc needs a reshuffle in order to better represent their voters in the European Parliament, leaders of the Hungarian ruling party Fidesz and the Polish PiS believe, urging for closer cooperation between the conservative ECR and ID groups in the next term.
With less than a month remaining until the EU elections, parties on both sides of the aisle have switched to campaign mode and begun courting prospective partners to join forces in the next five years.
This is especially true for Fidesz, whose sizable delegation left the centrist European People’s Party (EPP) mid-term and still hasn’t officially joined either conservative group, even though membership of either the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) or Identity and Democracy (ID) look like a viable options for the 10 to 12 Fidesz MEPs.
As there are many other moving pieces on the board, the opportunity is there to strengthen the entire conservative bloc—at least that’s what Hungarian PM Orbán, along with Polish ex-PM Mateusz Morawiecki plan to do.
“The current structure is not good: national conservative forces are taking the lead in the polls, and they don’t have a proper voice in the European Parliament,” Balázs Orbán, the Hungarian PM’s political director, explained. “So we need to create an environment where national conservative forces are much more heard on the European stage as well.”
Orbán said the current structure of Brussels’ sovereigntist bloc has become ineffective in countering the influence of the “federalist” forces, who are expected to weaken but still retain their majority in the European Parliament.
Indeed, between the two sovereigntist groups (ECR and ID), the currently non-aligned populist parties, and even the more right-wing delegations of the EPP, the national conservative bloc has the potential to become much more influential—were it not so fragmented.
Where would Fidesz go?
For now, Fidesz is still keeping every possibility on the table. When asked about whether it will join the ECR after the election, Orbán said the party has “many options,” including joining either the ECR or ID, or even forming a new sovereigntist group.
Rumors of a possible ECR-ID merger have been circulating in Brussels for months, although leaders on both sides usually dismiss its possibility due to some long-standing enmity between certain delegations as well as political differences, such as regarding the war in Ukraine.
It is also because of PM Orbán’s pro-ceasefire approach to Ukraine that Fidesz’ ECR membership is not yet completely certain. While ID (where most members think similarly about Ukraine) has officially extended its invitation to the party, some members of the ECR—a strongly pro-Ukraine group—still harbor some skepticism.
Practically, however, only Italian PM Giorgia Meloni and ex-Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki need to be convinced, as Meloni’s party, Fratelli d’Italia (FdI), and Morawiecki’s Law and Justice (PiS) are by far the largest and most influential delegations in ECR. Orbán has a very good personal relationship with both, but that might not be enough to solve a strategic question such as this.
On one hand, Morawiecki would welcome Fidesz with open arms and has said so multiple times (despite the two leaders being on opposite ends of the Ukraine spectrum, although they agree on nearly everything else). Meloni, on the other, is silent on the whole Fidesz issue, which might have multiple reasons.
Meloni’s gambit
Firstly, with PiS losing power after last year’s Polish election, Meloni is the only sitting prime minister within the group, which makes her the de facto leader of ECR. Sharing this position and image with Orbán might not be an easy idea to sell.
Secondly, however, as observers in Brussels increasingly point out, Meloni has begun carefully crafting her alliances within the center-right EPP. It’s unlikely that she’s considering jumping ship, but simply trying to steer ECR closer to the center mainstream, possibly securing a much larger (and at least nominally) right-wing coalition. The price of that, of course, would not only be gradually distancing ECR from current allies in ID, but also closing the doors on Fidesz.
Now, whether this is truly Meloni’s intention is not clear at this point, but the invitation is certainly there from the crumbling mainstream. The EPP’s secretary general, Thanasis Bakolas, recently commented that his party is open to collaboration with the “healthy parts” of the Right and even offers them to help “distinguish themselves from the far-right,” as long as the red lines are respected: pro-Europe, pro-NATO, pro-Ukraine.
Translation: if Meloni were to ditch Fidesz and the ID for good, ECR might finally earn a place at the big boys’ table right next to the EPP—although whether ECR would be the same party with the same principles in five years (akin to Theseus’ metaphorical ship) would probably be debatable.
Orbán, Morawiecki, and… Le Pen?
On the other side, Morawiecki’s ideal strategy is quite the opposite. Whereas Meloni has always maintained a healthy distance from ID—also because Matteo Salvini’s Lega, one of ID’s most influential members, is FdI’s main domestic competitor—Morawiecki not only wants Fidesz in the fold but also wants much closer ties with certain ID members, especially the Rassemblement National (RN), led in the French parliament by (the quite possibly future French president) Marine Le Pen. RN is expected to easily win the French race in June, becoming the single largest national conservative delegation in the European Parliament.
“We want our group to be considerably bigger. … There are also other parties, which are part of the ID group, which can expand our capacity to negotiate the future coalition, including Marine Le Pen,” Morawiecki said recently. When asked whether he was worried about the cordon sanitaire currently enforced on ID members such as RN, the former Polish prime minister simply said, “Try to put a cordon sanitaire around the French President. I wish you well.”
Nonetheless, it’s clear that forging a broader right-wing populist coalition is not an easy endeavor. Every option remains on the table until after the elections. The only thing that’s certain at this point is that national conservatives will grow considerably after June, to the point when they could pose a danger to the Brussels mainstream—depending on whether they can harness this strength, with or without a possible organizational reshuffle.
“What we are about to witness is a right-wing breakthrough at the elections,” MEP Tamás Deutsch, the leading candidate on Fidesz’ electoral list, told The European Conservative in an interview for our special election guide (now available to order). As Deutsch explained, the most important work starts after the election:
We have to concentrate on creating a political architecture where these parties can become an influential decision-making force in the European Parliament. Whether this will be one or two strong groups, is yet to be decided, but we have to establish a strong cooperation between these parties. Fidesz will definitely be participating and contributing to this.
