The ruling establishment of the EU will be watching closely the outcome of the Orbán-Trump White House Summit on Friday. As far as they are concerned, the close rapport between these two leaders and the influence Hungary can now exercise on the world stage is unwelcome news.
By now, yet another meeting between the Prime Minister of Hungary and the President of the United States is no longer unusual news. The close relationship between these two men was forged during Donald Trump’s first presidential campaign during the summer of 2016. At the time, when Orbán publicly endorsed his support for Trump’s presidential campaign, many European observers interpreted his action as a high-risk gesture. Eight years later, most of them discounted the possibility of a second Trump term and looked forward to Orbán getting his comeuppance from the incoming Democrat president. Orbán was the only EU leader to openly endorse Trump’s candidacy in 2024.
Even before Trump’s election in 2016, Orbán pointedly highlighted his preference for the Republican candidate. Praising Trump’s proposals on terrorism and immigration, he stated that “as a European, I could not have drawn up better what ‘Europe needs.’” Trump got the memo and soon concluded that he had at least one reliable European ally in Orbán. In May 2019, Orbán was invited to the White House for what would prove to be the first of several face-to-face encounters between the two leaders. In turn, in January 2022, Trump offered his complete support and endorsement for Orbán’s election campaign.
It was during 2024 that a relationship bordering on genuine affection was forged between the two leaders. Orbán visited Trump at Mar-a-Lago on two occasions and declared that he believed that the newly re-elected president was going to create peace between Russia and Ukraine. Since that time, there have been several phone calls between the two leaders dealing with the prospect of peace and critical issues such as tariffs and energy. “Viktor is a great person,” Trump declared during the Sharm el-Sheikh peace fest.
Until now the mutual admiration phase of the relationship between Orbán and Trump has not been seriously tested. Their political and intellectual affinity is well-known. It is likely that Trump was genuine in his praise of Orbán as a “very great leader, a very strong man.” However, when they meet this week, they will encounter each other not merely as two charismatic heads of state possessing a strong affinity for one another’s leadership style but as leaders pursuing their own distinct national interest.
Will the exigencies of realpolitik get in the way of their ideological bromance? It is likely that on most issues there will be little to divide the two parties. They are likely to sign a series of agreements on issues such as financial collaboration, the defence industry, and energy. However, Hungary’s request to be treated as a special case and be given a free pass to continue its imports of Russian oil despite Washington’s oil and gas sanctions will prove to be an interesting test of the relationship between the two leaders. So will Hungary’s close economic relation with China.
However, though the national interests of these two countries do not align on every issue, they are closely bound on the key domestic and geopolitical issues facing the Western world. Despite their difference on oil and gas sanctions, the two leaders share a similar orientation to the war in Ukraine.
No doubt the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict will be top of the agenda at this summit. The two leaders will want to assess the prospect for drawing up a realistic roadmap that could eventually lead to a peace agreement. Several Beltway insiders told me that Budapest remains their favourite site for an American-Russian summit later this year. Nothing would please the prime minister of Hungary more than hosting such a summit in Budapest.
In the end, it is likely that the demands of realpolitik will work towards strengthening the solidarity that has been cultivated by the two leaders. There is little doubt that the relationship between little Hungary and the American superpower is an asymmetrical one. But size does not always matter. The strengthening of diplomatic relations between Hungary and America is underpinned by an important coincidence of interest. Steve Bannon, Trump’s former chief strategist, famously called Orbán “Trump before Trump.” More recently, he stated that he saw Viktór Orbán as the “ridge between the U.S. and Europe’. That may be an exaggeration. It is more accurate to characterise Hungary as a well-tested conservative ally inside the EU. The leading lights in the MAGA movement recognise Orbán’s political intellectual legacy and regard him as the key voice of the conservative movement in Europe.
From the standpoint of Budapest, the election of Donald Trump represents its very own diplomatic triumph. For years, Orbán faced the threat of isolation by an informal alliance between the EU’s federalist leaders and the old Biden administration. That Orbán has been able to cultivate a close relationship with the White House has thwarted the attempt of the Brussels bureaucracy to diplomatically isolate Hungary. Whatever occurs at this Friday’s summit, the very fact that it is even happening shows that Viktor Orbán has emerged as a diplomatic player that Brussels can no longer wish away.
Frank Furedi is an observer on the Hungarian delegation to the United States.
