Poland Just Proved That Populism Is Nowhere Near Dead

We are constantly being warned that populism is on life support. The victory of Karol Nawrocki in Poland’s presidential elections last Sunday is just the latest example of how phenomenally wrong that diagnosis is. 

Nawrocki, a conservative historian backed by both the Law and Justice (PiS) opposition and U.S. President Donald Trump, narrowly won with 50.9% of the vote in a shock victory. This win will hand Nawrocki (and, crucially, PiS) the ability to veto legislation put forward by the current centrist, pro-EU government. 

For the European establishment in particular, Nawrocki’s win was simply unthinkable. His campaign focussed on attacking Brussels’s migration policies and its Net Zero agenda, as well as promoting conservative Catholic values and pushing back against woke ideology.

By contrast, Nawrocki’s rival, current Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, was supposed to be a shoo-in. Trzaskowski is a liberal, committed to the EU, and backed by the Polish prime minister and former president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, as well as his centrist Civic Platform coalition. Trzaskowski also received widespread support in the mainstream media, both domestically and abroad. He was wholeheartedly endorsed by the left-leaning Gazeta Wyborcza, one of Poland’s newspapers of record. In an editorial ahead of the election, it remained firm in the belief that Trzaskowski’s victory was a done deal: “On Sunday … we will decide—with great mobilisation and a sense of responsibility for our country—in such a way that we will save Poland from shame, and the state from chaos.” Meanwhile, outside of Poland, the UK’s Guardian referred to Nawrocki’s win as “threatening Poland’s place at Europe’s top table,” and the Washington Post called the incoming president “a looming threat to Europe’s unity.” 

Even Trzaskowski himself was so sure he would win the presidential election that he actually prematurely declared victory on Sunday night. Following the first exit polls, which showed him defeating Nawrocki with 50.3% to 49.7%, Trzaskowski told a crowd of his supporters that “we won.” “This is truly a special moment in Poland’s history,” he said, “I am convinced that it will allow us to move forward and focus on the future.” 

Why is it that every populist success comes as a shock to our elites? Yes, the poll numbers in Poland were nail-bitingly narrow. But by now, nothing can be considered beyond the realm of possibility. Time and again, we have been told that populism is either dead or dying, only for another populist movement to prove the pundits wrong. 

This has been the case all across Europe. Just last week, Portugal’s snap general election saw the right-populist Chega party usurp the centre-left Socialist Party as the country’s dominant opposition. In 2019, Chega had just one seat in the Assembly of the Republic. Now, the party has 60, winning 22.8% of the vote. While its platform of stricter law enforcement, less migration, and Euroscepticism might baffle Eurocrats, it certainly appeals to Portuguese voters. 

In Germany, the right-populist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) would also be the de facto opposition, were it not for the so-called firewall surrounding it in the Bundestag. Despite coming second in February’s elections with 20.8% of the vote (and some recent post-election polls even putting the party ahead of the ruling Christian Democrats), the AfD remains effectively quarantined by the establishment parties. In a further attempt by the state to quash Germany’s populist revolt, the AfD was recently classified as “extremist”—even if a pending court case has put the label on hold— by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency. Yet even this doesn’t seem to have put the brakes on the AfD’s public support.

Romania, too, was seeing its own populist surge, before it was thwarted by the meddling of the Romanian state. Last November, political outsider and ultranationalist Cǎlin Georgescu shocked the country’s dominant centrist parties by taking the lead in the first round of the presidential election, with 22.9% of the vote. Georgescu is certainly an odd character—taking a strong stand against both vaccines and bottled water. But Romanians were not even given the opportunity to make up their own minds about him. Just days before the planned runoff, Romania’s constitutional court annulled the election, citing dubious allegations of Russian interference in Georgescu’s campaign. Rather than hold a prompt rerun, authorities delayed the next vote for six months, in a move widely seen as an effort to regroup around an acceptable centrist candidate. When the election went ahead last month, it was, of course, the pro-EU Nicuşor Dan who claimed victory. 

But populism does often find a way, even within the European Parliament itself. Last June, right-wing, populist, and Eurosceptic parties surged to new heights in the European Parliamentary elections. In Germany, the AfD came second, winning almost 16% of the vote. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s ruling Brothers of Italy took the lead with 28%. Even in Belgium, the heart of the EU, Vlaams Belang, a right-wing Flemish-nationalist party, topped the polls with 14%t. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally not only came in first place with 30% of the vote but also forced President Emmanuel Macron to dissolve parliament and hold snap legislative elections. 

Across the Channel and outside the EU, populism is racking up electoral victories in the UK, too. In last July’s General Election, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK managed to win its first four seats in parliament, and 14.3% of the total vote. More recently, Reform won in the constituency of Runcorn and Helsby, formerly a Labour safe seat, in a by-election last month. At the same time, Farage’s party was able to scoop up the Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty in the local council elections, as well as more votes, seats, and overall control of more councils than any other party. Some of the latest polls place Reform comfortably ahead of both the Conservatives and Labour. 

The success of populists in Poland, Portugal, Germany, and beyond could only come as a surprise to our out-of-touch elites. Dismissing Europeans with legitimate concerns over the EU’s open borders, disastrous climate agenda, crackdowns on free speech, and stifling bureaucracy as bigoted or extremist will not make them disappear. If anything, this contempt will only fuel the fire. As recent elections across the continent clearly show, voters are sick and tired of being sneered at for wanting secure borders, affordable energy, and a say in their own national affairs. 

Populism is far from dead. In many ways, it is only just getting started. The longer Europe’s elites pretend otherwise, the louder that message will be delivered at the ballot box.