The Dutch elections have once again produced a surprise. The left-liberal party D66 rose sharply, while Geert Wilders’ right-wing populist Party for Freedom suffered a heavy defeat. Part of the explanation for this undoubtedly lies in the complete failure of the outgoing right-wing coalition, of which Wilders’ party was a member, to take any decisive measures whatsoever. Wilders attributed this to the blocking attempts of the Christian Democratic NSC, which will now disappear completely from the Dutch House of Representatives after winning 20 seats in 2023.
The question now is which coalition can be forged.
Most analysts seem to assume that D66 will form a government together with the right-wing liberal VVD, the Christian Democratic CDA, and the left-wing GroenLinks–PvdA. However, this will be more difficult than some people think.
First of all, GroenLinks–PvdA suffered heavy losses, so it remains to be seen how keen they will be to enter into a coalition. Even before the final results were known, party leader Frans Timmermans announced his resignation. It was not a minute too soon. The man first failed as European Commissioner for ‘better regulation’ between 2014 and 2019 to tackle EU overregulation before becoming the face of the EU’s fanatical regulatory green drive between 2019 and 2024 as EU Commissioner for Climate Policy. This included the infamous Green Deal.
An agenda that continues to have an impact
To this day, Timmermans’ EU agenda continues to have an impact on the EU policymaking process. For example, there are the ever-increasing EU climate targets and higher taxes on emissions, via the ETS EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), all contributing to the dramatic situation in which the European chemical sector finds itself. Chemical company Ineos has warned several times: ‘The European chemical industry is dying out.’
The company is calling for the European climate taxation scheme to be abolished, but the European Commission wants to stick to it, and few politicians seem to care about the disappearance of the chemical industry, even if it forms the basis for all other industries and is heavily dependent on energy prices, which are skyrocketing thanks to the climate policies of which Timmermans is the face.
Furthermore, Timmermans was instrumental in introducing the de facto ban on combustion engines by 2035. Oliver Zipse, CEO of BMW, said in September, ‘If the current emission rules remain in place, the car industry in Europe will be halved.’ It is shocking that there is still little movement to simply scrap the 2035 ban.
There is also the extension of the EU’s ETS climate tax to consumers. According to this ill-advised plan, once introduced by Timmermans, anyone who drives a diesel or petrol car or heats their home with gas will have to pay hundreds of euros more per year. Many EU member states want to scrap it, but the Commission is trying with all its might to push it through anyway.
Furthermore, Timmermans’ questionable legacy is still felt in the European Union’s trade policy. Recently, the U.S. and Qatar demanded that the EU either abolish or significantly slim down its bureaucratic new CSDDD directive. This directive imposes numerous new bureaucratic information obligations on companies trading with the EU, including American ones.
Another directive from the Timmermans era is the EU’s deforestation directive. This too is causing a great deal of tension with trading partners. After US President Trump managed to secure a de facto exemption for American products, trading partners such as Indonesia and Malaysia asked for the same. Malaysia considers it unfair that its imports are classified by the EU as ‘standard risk’—as opposed to the American classification of ‘low risk’—given that Malaysian deforestation has improved significantly, with NGOs acknowledging a reduction of 13% last year.
On top of that, there is also the European protectionist climate tariff CBAM, another relic from the Timmermans era, which amounts to the EU bombarding trading partners that do not follow its own suicidal climate policy with customs tariffs, including a lot of bureaucracy, even for European companies. Here too, Trump managed to secure concessions, which last summer led to a demand by South Africa to also be exempted. After all, African economies are at risk of being hit hard by CBAM. As with the deforestation directive, attempts to impose rules on trading partners are causing discontent, double standards, and a lack of progress in opening up trade between the EU and the rest of the world. India complained last week that it is ‘almost impossible’ to comply with all EU regulations.
The ‘NGO scandal’
On top of that came the so-called ‘NGO scandal,’ whereby it emerged that the European Commission had secretly financed environmental NGOs for years to lobby for green legislation, including Frans Timmermans’ Green Deal. The German newspaper Die Welt revealed that the NGOs “had to lobby in exchange for funding, according to the contracts, and fight against coal-fired power stations, pesticides and the free trade agreement between Europe and South America (Mercosur).” This, while the European Commission was trying to finalize the trade agreement with the Latin American trade bloc.
After his term as European Commissioner, Timmermans went back to Dutch politics, taking over the leadership of the left-wing merger ‘movement’ between the Greens of GroenLinks and the social-democratic PvdA, which could now split. Timmermans’ radical profile prompted the leader of the VVD, Dilan Yesilgöz, to declare that she ‘does not see it happening’ that her party would form a government with GroenLinks-PvdA. The VVD lost slightly, but many of the party’s new voters came from the right of the political spectrum, which will make the VVD even less keen to form a government with GroenLinks-PVDA and the equally left-leaning parties D66 and CDA.
There is, however, an alternative to such a centrist cabinet, namely for D66, VVD, and CDA to approach the right-wing conservative JA21, perhaps supplemented by, for example, the farmer party BoerBurgerBeweging or the more left-wing Christenunie, which both lean towards the Christian Democratic family. In order to obtain a majority in the Senate, which is important for the approval of the Dutch budget, it becomes even more complex, and some kind of tacit support from GroenLinks-PVDA may be necessary.The question is whether much will happen in the coming months. Local elections are scheduled for March 2026, so making significant concessions in the run-up to elections is not appealing. It therefore looks as if Dick Schoof will remain prime minister of the Netherlands for a while longer. For now, at least the Dutch have escaped a Timmermans cabi
The Questionable Legacy of Frans Timmermans
Frans Timmermans
Sandoval Dan © European Union, 2023, Source – EC Audiovisual
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The Dutch elections have once again produced a surprise. The left-liberal party D66 rose sharply, while Geert Wilders’ right-wing populist Party for Freedom suffered a heavy defeat. Part of the explanation for this undoubtedly lies in the complete failure of the outgoing right-wing coalition, of which Wilders’ party was a member, to take any decisive measures whatsoever. Wilders attributed this to the blocking attempts of the Christian Democratic NSC, which will now disappear completely from the Dutch House of Representatives after winning 20 seats in 2023.
The question now is which coalition can be forged.
Most analysts seem to assume that D66 will form a government together with the right-wing liberal VVD, the Christian Democratic CDA, and the left-wing GroenLinks–PvdA. However, this will be more difficult than some people think.
First of all, GroenLinks–PvdA suffered heavy losses, so it remains to be seen how keen they will be to enter into a coalition. Even before the final results were known, party leader Frans Timmermans announced his resignation. It was not a minute too soon. The man first failed as European Commissioner for ‘better regulation’ between 2014 and 2019 to tackle EU overregulation before becoming the face of the EU’s fanatical regulatory green drive between 2019 and 2024 as EU Commissioner for Climate Policy. This included the infamous Green Deal.
An agenda that continues to have an impact
To this day, Timmermans’ EU agenda continues to have an impact on the EU policymaking process. For example, there are the ever-increasing EU climate targets and higher taxes on emissions, via the ETS EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), all contributing to the dramatic situation in which the European chemical sector finds itself. Chemical company Ineos has warned several times: ‘The European chemical industry is dying out.’
The company is calling for the European climate taxation scheme to be abolished, but the European Commission wants to stick to it, and few politicians seem to care about the disappearance of the chemical industry, even if it forms the basis for all other industries and is heavily dependent on energy prices, which are skyrocketing thanks to the climate policies of which Timmermans is the face.
Furthermore, Timmermans was instrumental in introducing the de facto ban on combustion engines by 2035. Oliver Zipse, CEO of BMW, said in September, ‘If the current emission rules remain in place, the car industry in Europe will be halved.’ It is shocking that there is still little movement to simply scrap the 2035 ban.
There is also the extension of the EU’s ETS climate tax to consumers. According to this ill-advised plan, once introduced by Timmermans, anyone who drives a diesel or petrol car or heats their home with gas will have to pay hundreds of euros more per year. Many EU member states want to scrap it, but the Commission is trying with all its might to push it through anyway.
Furthermore, Timmermans’ questionable legacy is still felt in the European Union’s trade policy. Recently, the U.S. and Qatar demanded that the EU either abolish or significantly slim down its bureaucratic new CSDDD directive. This directive imposes numerous new bureaucratic information obligations on companies trading with the EU, including American ones.
Another directive from the Timmermans era is the EU’s deforestation directive. This too is causing a great deal of tension with trading partners. After US President Trump managed to secure a de facto exemption for American products, trading partners such as Indonesia and Malaysia asked for the same. Malaysia considers it unfair that its imports are classified by the EU as ‘standard risk’—as opposed to the American classification of ‘low risk’—given that Malaysian deforestation has improved significantly, with NGOs acknowledging a reduction of 13% last year.
On top of that, there is also the European protectionist climate tariff CBAM, another relic from the Timmermans era, which amounts to the EU bombarding trading partners that do not follow its own suicidal climate policy with customs tariffs, including a lot of bureaucracy, even for European companies. Here too, Trump managed to secure concessions, which last summer led to a demand by South Africa to also be exempted. After all, African economies are at risk of being hit hard by CBAM. As with the deforestation directive, attempts to impose rules on trading partners are causing discontent, double standards, and a lack of progress in opening up trade between the EU and the rest of the world. India complained last week that it is ‘almost impossible’ to comply with all EU regulations.
The ‘NGO scandal’
On top of that came the so-called ‘NGO scandal,’ whereby it emerged that the European Commission had secretly financed environmental NGOs for years to lobby for green legislation, including Frans Timmermans’ Green Deal. The German newspaper Die Welt revealed that the NGOs “had to lobby in exchange for funding, according to the contracts, and fight against coal-fired power stations, pesticides and the free trade agreement between Europe and South America (Mercosur).” This, while the European Commission was trying to finalize the trade agreement with the Latin American trade bloc.
After his term as European Commissioner, Timmermans went back to Dutch politics, taking over the leadership of the left-wing merger ‘movement’ between the Greens of GroenLinks and the social-democratic PvdA, which could now split. Timmermans’ radical profile prompted the leader of the VVD, Dilan Yesilgöz, to declare that she ‘does not see it happening’ that her party would form a government with GroenLinks-PvdA. The VVD lost slightly, but many of the party’s new voters came from the right of the political spectrum, which will make the VVD even less keen to form a government with GroenLinks-PVDA and the equally left-leaning parties D66 and CDA.
There is, however, an alternative to such a centrist cabinet, namely for D66, VVD, and CDA to approach the right-wing conservative JA21, perhaps supplemented by, for example, the farmer party BoerBurgerBeweging or the more left-wing Christenunie, which both lean towards the Christian Democratic family. In order to obtain a majority in the Senate, which is important for the approval of the Dutch budget, it becomes even more complex, and some kind of tacit support from GroenLinks-PVDA may be necessary.The question is whether much will happen in the coming months. Local elections are scheduled for March 2026, so making significant concessions in the run-up to elections is not appealing. It therefore looks as if Dick Schoof will remain prime minister of the Netherlands for a while longer. For now, at least the Dutch have escaped a Timmermans cabi
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