“Tonight, Iowa made this Republican primary a two-person race,” boasted Republican presidential candidate and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley in what sounded like a prematurely written speech as the final results of Iowa’s distinctive caucus system of candidate selection—the first state to hold such accounts—rolled in. While most American states hold a statewide ‘primary’ election to determine which candidate will win its nominating delegates in a national party convention, where the general election presidential candidate is chosen, Iowa and a handful of other states invite party members to ‘caucus,’ that is, to hold small-scale community meetings whose results are combined to select delegates favoring the candidates.
Haley appeared to mean that she and former president Donald J. Trump are now the two real competitors for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination, with Trump looming as the troubled past and Haley herself auguring a new generation of American conservatism. She confirmed as much the next day when she stated that henceforth she will only participate in formal debates that include either Trump, who has consistently refused to debate other Republican candidates, or incumbent U.S. President Joe Biden, who will presumably win his party’s renomination and debate the Republican nominee.
In a dramatic upset only a few moments before Haley appeared on stage, however, media outlets declared that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in fact finished second in Iowa, winning 21.2% to Haley’s 19.1%. The two trailing candidates were almost exactly tied in polls leading up to the caucuses, with Haley increasingly displacing DeSantis as the preferred candidate of establishment Republicans and Rupert Murdoch’s influential media conglomerate. DeSantis, whose campaign has been inept since its beginning in May 2023 and has especially struggled lately, seemed doomed to oblivion in Iowa this month. In the long haul, however, DeSantis’s efforts paid off in the state. He visited all of Iowa’s 99 counties in what was described as a “barnstorming” campaign and spent much of his campaign’s financial reserves on his Iowa efforts in order to remain viable. Revealingly, Haley outspent him by more than two to one in the final two weeks before the caucuses, but still placed an embarrassing third. DeSantis’s speech, though not quite a victory speech, was one of his most upbeat and enthusiastic public addresses in months. Haley’s supporters among the media commentariat looked hard for reasons to celebrate her but advanced little that sounded convincing.
As was widely predicted, Trump finished in first place, winning an absolute majority of 51% of Iowa’s Republican caucus participants. Fourth-place candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur whom Trump recently dismissed as “not MAGA,” won just 7.7%. Seeing no path forward, Ramaswamy suspended his campaign shortly after the results were announced and endorsed Trump, whom he identified as the only other America First—i.e., conservative nationalist—candidate in the presidential race. Another Republican candidate, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, dropped out the next day.
Trump’s overpowering victory should be the real story, though Iowa’s results have a mixed record of predicting the Republican nominee in competitive years when no incumbent Republican president is running for reelection. In 2016, Trump narrowly lost Iowa to Texas Senator Ted Cruz, but nevertheless recovered in subsequent contests and won both his party’s nomination and the presidency. Eventual Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney likewise lost Iowa in 2012, when former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum bested him in the caucuses. The late John McCain, the Republican candidate in 2008, went down to former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee in that year’s caucuses. It was only nearly a quarter of a century ago, in 2000, when the successful Republican primary candidate George W. Bush won both the Iowa caucuses and his party’s nomination and, after some legal wrangling, the presidency.
The crucial difference is that the margins of defeat for past losing candidates were small enough that they could recover later on the campaign trail and overcome the initial victor. In 2016, for example, Trump only lost to Cruz by three points. In 2012, Romney lost to Santorum by just 0.03%, or a paltry 34 votes. For Trump’s opponents this year, the margins of defeat were enormous. Despite DeSantis’s unexpectedly strong finish, he still lost to Trump by 30 points, and his finances are said to be exhausted.
In New Hampshire, which will hold its primary elections on January 23 and is a much stronger predictor of electoral success, according to the latest poll, DeSantis is lagging at just 7%, far behind both Trump, who leads with 44%, and Haley, who is running in second place with 28%. Haley’s 28% may help her recover the second-place spot, especially if supporters of former Republican candidate and Trump critic Chris Christie add their 12% strength to her column, but her third-place finish in Iowa may well diminish enthusiasm for her candidacy. Mathematically, Trump seems poised to defeat her on his own in any case, but with Ramaswamy’s endorsement, he will undoubtedly climb higher, assuming the latter’s supporters cast their ballots for the former president.
No matter what happens in New Hampshire, both DeSantis and Haley are badly losing to Trump everywhere else. Trump’s national lead for the Republican nomination exceeds 50 points in most polls, with DeSantis and Haley unpromisingly tied at about 11 points each. Even in their home states, Trump far exceeds them among Republicans. In South Carolina, which will have its primary on February 24, Trump defeats Haley, who is reviled there, by nearly 30 points. In Florida, which has its primary on March 19, the former president enjoys a commanding lead of more than 40 points over DeSantis, who nevertheless remains widely respected as governor.
Although expected, Trump’s Iowa victory has revitalized his campaign and reinforced his unshakable position in the headlines. Turnout was low due to winter weather conditions and temperatures well below zero, but the former president’s supporters were far more enthusiastic than those of his rivals to turn out for him in strength. His opponents are in despair. Democrats and Republicans alike are now speculating that Biden may be convinced—or forced—to step down before the nominating conventions this summer. Major opinion polls show Biden with a 33% approval rating among American voters and a 58% disapproval rating—the worst of his presidency—and losing to Trump, DeSantis, or Haley in a one-on-one presidential race.
The far-left MSNBC cable television news network was so put out that it refused to broadcast Trump’s victory speech, effectively censoring undisputed news in a major American political contest. Desperate ‘Never Trump’ Republicans are fantasizing that Haley can turn things around, or that a new contender—possibly someone selected by the so-called ‘No Labels’ movement of centrists drawn from both political parties—might upset the race, or that Trump’s legal troubles could turn off voters—but such prospects seem ever dimmer.
Trump Triumphant in Iowa
“Tonight, Iowa made this Republican primary a two-person race,” boasted Republican presidential candidate and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley in what sounded like a prematurely written speech as the final results of Iowa’s distinctive caucus system of candidate selection—the first state to hold such accounts—rolled in. While most American states hold a statewide ‘primary’ election to determine which candidate will win its nominating delegates in a national party convention, where the general election presidential candidate is chosen, Iowa and a handful of other states invite party members to ‘caucus,’ that is, to hold small-scale community meetings whose results are combined to select delegates favoring the candidates.
Haley appeared to mean that she and former president Donald J. Trump are now the two real competitors for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination, with Trump looming as the troubled past and Haley herself auguring a new generation of American conservatism. She confirmed as much the next day when she stated that henceforth she will only participate in formal debates that include either Trump, who has consistently refused to debate other Republican candidates, or incumbent U.S. President Joe Biden, who will presumably win his party’s renomination and debate the Republican nominee.
In a dramatic upset only a few moments before Haley appeared on stage, however, media outlets declared that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in fact finished second in Iowa, winning 21.2% to Haley’s 19.1%. The two trailing candidates were almost exactly tied in polls leading up to the caucuses, with Haley increasingly displacing DeSantis as the preferred candidate of establishment Republicans and Rupert Murdoch’s influential media conglomerate. DeSantis, whose campaign has been inept since its beginning in May 2023 and has especially struggled lately, seemed doomed to oblivion in Iowa this month. In the long haul, however, DeSantis’s efforts paid off in the state. He visited all of Iowa’s 99 counties in what was described as a “barnstorming” campaign and spent much of his campaign’s financial reserves on his Iowa efforts in order to remain viable. Revealingly, Haley outspent him by more than two to one in the final two weeks before the caucuses, but still placed an embarrassing third. DeSantis’s speech, though not quite a victory speech, was one of his most upbeat and enthusiastic public addresses in months. Haley’s supporters among the media commentariat looked hard for reasons to celebrate her but advanced little that sounded convincing.
As was widely predicted, Trump finished in first place, winning an absolute majority of 51% of Iowa’s Republican caucus participants. Fourth-place candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur whom Trump recently dismissed as “not MAGA,” won just 7.7%. Seeing no path forward, Ramaswamy suspended his campaign shortly after the results were announced and endorsed Trump, whom he identified as the only other America First—i.e., conservative nationalist—candidate in the presidential race. Another Republican candidate, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, dropped out the next day.
Trump’s overpowering victory should be the real story, though Iowa’s results have a mixed record of predicting the Republican nominee in competitive years when no incumbent Republican president is running for reelection. In 2016, Trump narrowly lost Iowa to Texas Senator Ted Cruz, but nevertheless recovered in subsequent contests and won both his party’s nomination and the presidency. Eventual Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney likewise lost Iowa in 2012, when former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum bested him in the caucuses. The late John McCain, the Republican candidate in 2008, went down to former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee in that year’s caucuses. It was only nearly a quarter of a century ago, in 2000, when the successful Republican primary candidate George W. Bush won both the Iowa caucuses and his party’s nomination and, after some legal wrangling, the presidency.
The crucial difference is that the margins of defeat for past losing candidates were small enough that they could recover later on the campaign trail and overcome the initial victor. In 2016, for example, Trump only lost to Cruz by three points. In 2012, Romney lost to Santorum by just 0.03%, or a paltry 34 votes. For Trump’s opponents this year, the margins of defeat were enormous. Despite DeSantis’s unexpectedly strong finish, he still lost to Trump by 30 points, and his finances are said to be exhausted.
In New Hampshire, which will hold its primary elections on January 23 and is a much stronger predictor of electoral success, according to the latest poll, DeSantis is lagging at just 7%, far behind both Trump, who leads with 44%, and Haley, who is running in second place with 28%. Haley’s 28% may help her recover the second-place spot, especially if supporters of former Republican candidate and Trump critic Chris Christie add their 12% strength to her column, but her third-place finish in Iowa may well diminish enthusiasm for her candidacy. Mathematically, Trump seems poised to defeat her on his own in any case, but with Ramaswamy’s endorsement, he will undoubtedly climb higher, assuming the latter’s supporters cast their ballots for the former president.
No matter what happens in New Hampshire, both DeSantis and Haley are badly losing to Trump everywhere else. Trump’s national lead for the Republican nomination exceeds 50 points in most polls, with DeSantis and Haley unpromisingly tied at about 11 points each. Even in their home states, Trump far exceeds them among Republicans. In South Carolina, which will have its primary on February 24, Trump defeats Haley, who is reviled there, by nearly 30 points. In Florida, which has its primary on March 19, the former president enjoys a commanding lead of more than 40 points over DeSantis, who nevertheless remains widely respected as governor.
Although expected, Trump’s Iowa victory has revitalized his campaign and reinforced his unshakable position in the headlines. Turnout was low due to winter weather conditions and temperatures well below zero, but the former president’s supporters were far more enthusiastic than those of his rivals to turn out for him in strength. His opponents are in despair. Democrats and Republicans alike are now speculating that Biden may be convinced—or forced—to step down before the nominating conventions this summer. Major opinion polls show Biden with a 33% approval rating among American voters and a 58% disapproval rating—the worst of his presidency—and losing to Trump, DeSantis, or Haley in a one-on-one presidential race.
The far-left MSNBC cable television news network was so put out that it refused to broadcast Trump’s victory speech, effectively censoring undisputed news in a major American political contest. Desperate ‘Never Trump’ Republicans are fantasizing that Haley can turn things around, or that a new contender—possibly someone selected by the so-called ‘No Labels’ movement of centrists drawn from both political parties—might upset the race, or that Trump’s legal troubles could turn off voters—but such prospects seem ever dimmer.
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