Will What’s Left of the British Conservative Party Be Worth Saving?

The stream of Tories jumping ship to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK shows no sign of abating. Amid Reform’s fresh new recruits, the defection of Suella Braverman stands apart. In my opinion, she is likely to add several percentage points to Reform’s vote share immediately—not through any sudden mass conversion, but by crystallising the disillusionment among the Conservative base that has been building since the 2024 wipeout. 

There is tentative evidence to support this, for instance, a recent YouGov poll suggesting that around a quarter of 2024 Tory voters now view Reform more favourably following the Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick defections. Furthermore, Rishi Sunak’s sacking of Braverman back in November 2023 coincided with a sharp rise in the Reform vote. 

Those who ‘switch sides’ in any walk of life can expect a degree of censure, but political defections are almost impossible to pull off without violent condemnation. For we ask a great deal of our politicians: loyalty to country, to party, to a manifesto they likely had little or no hand in drafting, and above all to principle—even when many if not all of those things are unaligned. Few of us would satisfy such a test in any 24-hour period. Braverman, however—a paid-up Conservative for the best part of thirty years—might just make the grade. 

It was she, after all, who stood firm against the pro-Palestine hate marches sullying the streets of London; she was one of the first to speak out about the net-zero dogma that burdens ordinary families and the need to leave the ECHR; she did everything she could to tighten up an immigration system she described as “an invasion” and to correct the Metropolitan Police’s shameful two-tier policing. In her re-election speech in 2024, she even had the grace to apologise to the British people—something rarer than hen’s teeth in Westminster: 

I want to briefly address the results around the country, and there’s only one thing I can say … sorry. I’m sorry. The Great British people voted for us over 14 years and we did not keep our promises … we acted like we were entitled to your votes.

When a politician is sacked from the same high office twice in as many years by different prime ministers, it is tempting to infer that they are simply not up to the job. The alternative explanation, which I suspect is far closer to the truth, is that Suella was being actively impeded from doing hers. Braverman’s record as Home Secretary—pushing for tougher border controls, confronting cultural threats head-on—clashed repeatedly with the cautious centrism that has defined recent Conservative leadership. Her departures from government were less about personal failure than about a party unwilling to confront hard realities—particularly those for which they must assume the lion’s share of responsibility.

The manner of the Braverman defection tells its own story. Announced at a Veterans for Reform event earlier this week, it felt less like a calculated political manoeuvre and more like a genuine homecoming. Suella’s words, “I feel like I’ve come home,” were delivered with visible emotion and met with warmth and applause from the room. Braverman’s reception suggests a sense among Reform supporters that one of their own had finally returned.

The Conservative Party response was equally revealing—and far uglier. Within hours of Braverman’s defection, an official statement read,

It was always a matter of when, not if, Suella would defect. The Conservatives did all we could to look after Suella’s mental health, but she was clearly very unhappy.”

Naturally this was swiftly retracted as a “draft put out in error,” but the damage had been done. Badenoch further compounded the matter by describing defectors as “drama queens” throwing tantrums “dressed up as politics.” Such venom betrays panic rather than confidence. And it is precisely this dismissal of common conservative concerns which defined the last 14 years of Tory demise.  

Two questions now loom large. First, who follows Braverman? Just a fortnight ago, the Tories had placed 11 of their MPs on a ‘defection watchlist’. Prominent among them are rising star and Jenrick ally Katie Lam, who spoke out eloquently against the Labour inertia on grooming gangs; GB News favourite Esther McVey; and veteran right-wingers Sir John Hayes, Mark Francois, and Sir Desmond Swayne. 

Second, what is to become of the Conservative Party? While often speculated over, a full merger with Reform is now unthinkable. Such a move would spell disaster for Farage: necessitating import of the Tory ‘wets,’ and saddling the party with responsibility for 14 years of failure. Some kind of realignment on the Right was always inevitable, but it need not mean absorption. Reform, bolstered by figures like Braverman, who command respect on security and sovereignty, could instead emerge as the authentic home for unapologetic conservatism. What remains of the Conservative Party could always consider a merger with the LibDems—assuming they can stomach the move rightward. 

While one should be cautious in overstating the matter, Braverman’s embrace of Reform is no mere defection. The Tories, hollowed out and dominated by those unwilling to fight the battles their voters demand, risk becoming the walking dead of British politics. Braverman’s homecoming may just herald a renaissance for the Right. The dam has cracked—will it hold, or will the floodwaters reshape British politics entirely?