A majority of citizens across nine EU countries see a high risk of war breaking out between the bloc’s members and Russia, according to a survey by polling group Cluster 17 published Thursday in the French international affairs journal Le Grand Continent.
The poll’s findings, based on a sample of almost 10,000 people from the nine countries, come more than three-and-a-half years into the conflict sparked by Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine and amid fears the war could spread further.
France’s top general Fabien Mandon last month warned Russia was preparing for a new confrontation by 2030. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that if Europe wants war “we are ready right now.”
Overall, 51% of respondents considered the risk of conflict with Russia “high” or “very high.” However, concerns varied sharply between countries. In Poland, which shares borders with Russia and Belarus, 77% of participants viewed the risk as high or very high. By contrast, 54% of French respondents and 51% of Germans expressed similar levels of concern. Italians were notably less worried, with 65% believing the risk to be low or nonexistent.
The poll also highlighted widespread doubts about national defense capabilities. Across the surveyed countries, 69% of respondents believed their country would be “not at all” or “not likely” to defend itself against Russia.
In France, the only country in the survey to have nuclear weapons, respondents were the least pessimistic, with 44% believing their country is “quite” or “fairly” capable of defending itself.
By comparison, Belgians, Italians, and Portuguese were most skeptical, at 87%, 85%, and 85%, respectively.
When asked about other threats, “terrorism” was considered the most immediate danger. Across the nine countries, 63%of respondents assessed the risk of terrorist attacks as “high” or “very high.”
