According to a new poll conducted on Thursday and Friday, the right-wing populist Rassemblement National (RN) would be well ahead of its rivals in the first round of early parliamentary elections, with 31% of the vote.
Allied with Éric Ciotti’s party, the RN could benefit from a weakening of the ‘Republican Front’ in the second round, according to representative poll by Elabe, carried out online for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche.
The Left would win 23.5% of the vote if united. If divided, an alliance of socialists, the ecologists, and communists would garner 16.5% of the vote, compared to 10% for the La France Insoumise (LFI) party. The other various left-wing parties would have between 5 and 6.5% of the vote.
The central bloc Ensemble (composed of Renaissance, MoDem and Horizons) would be the big loser with only 14% of the vote, almost 7 points less than in 2024. Les Républicains (LR) would obtain 10.5% of the vote.
In the second round, the RN could benefit from a less powerful Republican Front than in 2024. This is rejected by 57% of voters (31% of those from Ensemble and 19% of voters from the New Popular Front). In 2024, this Republican front deprived the RN of several dozen deputies in the second round.
