A new French opinion poll suggests that Jordan Bardella of the Rassemblement national (National Rally) is on course to win the 2027 presidential election, while far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon is gaining ground.
According to the Odoxa survey published Tuesday, May 26th Bardella would defeat former prime minister Édouard Philippe in a second-round runoff by 52% to 48%. The result indicates a narrow but consistent lead for Bardella in a potential head-to-head contest for the Élysée Palace.
The poll also highlights uncertainty over who would advance to the runoff alongside Bardella. Mélenchon, leader of the France Unbowed party (LFI), is showing growth in first-round voting intentions, rising to 16% from 12% in a previous survey. Philippe, meanwhile, has slipped from 21% to 17%.
The study suggests that Mélenchon has become the most popular left-wing figure among left-leaning voters, ahead of former president François Hollande and MEP Raphaël Glucksmann. He is supported by 49% of left-wing voters, compared with 43% for Hollande and 36% for Glucksmann.Previous Odoxa polling has shown a much wider gap, including a November survey that placed Bardella ahead of Mélenchon by 74% to 26%.
