Brussels had been confident that Viktor Orbán would lose the election, but recently officials have begun to panic that he might win after all, leading to the preparation of “emergency scenarios”.
According to Politico, Brussels leaders are weighing the following five options against Hungary if the governing parties win the election:
- changing the voting system
- multi-speed Europe
- financial pressure
- suspension of voting rights
- expulsion from the European Union
The first scenario envisages that if Fidesz wins and retains the ability to block certain decisions, the solution would be to abolish the veto. In practice this would mean extending qualified majority voting – which generally requires the support of 55 percent of member states representing 65 percent of the EU population – to sensitive areas where unanimity is currently required, such as foreign policy or elements of the EU’s long-term budget. The paper acknowledges that this would effectively mean the EU changing one of its founding principles on account of Orbán.
The second option would not change the rules but would initiate new forms of cooperation within the EU. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has suggested making greater use of enhanced cooperation among willing member states in order to bypass the unanimity requirement in areas such as competitiveness.
From here the scenarios become tougher.
The third option is the introduction of financial sanctions against Hungary for blocking Ukraine’s loan because of the closure of the Friendship oil pipeline. European Council President António Costa has suggested that Orbán’s blocking of Ukraine’s loan violated Article 4(3) of the EU Treaty, which requires member states to ensure “sincere cooperation”. This could be used as the basis for financial penalties.
The fourth scenario is the suspension of Hungary’s voting rights. This, however, would require unanimity. “Under Article 7 unanimity is needed – that will be difficult,” one diplomat told Politico.
The most dramatic – and least realistic – possibility, according to the paper, is Hungary’s expulsion from the EU. Even the diplomats speaking to Politico rejected this idea.
Interestingly, Politico did not list any option in which Hungary’s position would be heard and accepted; instead, in every case they are preparing to circumvent it.
